Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Météo France pinpoint a narrow 10-12°C range for Paris's highest temperature on March 28, driving tight trader odds with 11°C (28%) edging 10°C (26%) and 12°C (18.5%). A mild Atlantic air mass supports these levels above the late-March climatological average of ~10°C, but northerly winds and variable cloud cover introduce uncertainty, differentiating outcomes—clearer skies could push toward 12°C, while overcast conditions favor 10°C. Recent model runs show slight warming trends in GFS updates, yet historical data from similar setups (e.g., 2023's 11°C peak) reinforces trader consensus around 10-11°C amid typical spring variability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Paris on March 28?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 28?
10°C 31%
11°C 28%
12°C 19%
9°C 16%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
7%
9°C
16%
10°C
26%
11°C
28%
12°C
19%
13°C
8%
14°C
8%
15°C
9%
16°C
3%
17°C or higher
3%
10°C 31%
11°C 28%
12°C 19%
9°C 16%
7°C or below
1%
8°C
7%
9°C
16%
10°C
26%
11°C
28%
12°C
19%
13°C
8%
14°C
8%
15°C
9%
16°C
3%
17°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 24, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and Météo France pinpoint a narrow 10-12°C range for Paris's highest temperature on March 28, driving tight trader odds with 11°C (28%) edging 10°C (26%) and 12°C (18.5%). A mild Atlantic air mass supports these levels above the late-March climatological average of ~10°C, but northerly winds and variable cloud cover introduce uncertainty, differentiating outcomes—clearer skies could push toward 12°C, while overcast conditions favor 10°C. Recent model runs show slight warming trends in GFS updates, yet historical data from similar setups (e.g., 2023's 11°C peak) reinforces trader consensus around 10-11°C amid typical spring variability.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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