Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 17°C or higher in Paris today (91% implied probability), driven by Météo-France's latest forecast of a 17°C afternoon peak under a dominant high-pressure ridge at 1021 hPa, fostering light south-southwesterly winds that advect mild air masses northward. Morning overcast skies are expected to yield to partial sunshine, boosting sensible temperatures +2°C above early-April norms of around 15°C, consistent with recent spring warmth trends across Île-de-France. Model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS align on this mild scenario, reflecting above-average solar insolation potential. Realistic challenges include persistent low clouds suppressing highs to 16°C or a sudden wind shift introducing cooler Atlantic air, with resolution hinging on observations from Paris-Montsouris station by midnight.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日Highest temperature in Paris on April 4?
Highest temperature in Paris on April 4?
17°C or higher 82%
16°C 8.8%
15°C 7.2%
14°C 1.9%
$80,958 Vol.
$80,958 Vol.
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
7%
16°C
9%
17°C or higher
82%
17°C or higher 82%
16°C 8.8%
15°C 7.2%
14°C 1.9%
$80,958 Vol.
$80,958 Vol.
13°C
<1%
14°C
2%
15°C
7%
16°C
9%
17°C or higher
82%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日: Mar 29, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors a high of 17°C or higher in Paris today (91% implied probability), driven by Météo-France's latest forecast of a 17°C afternoon peak under a dominant high-pressure ridge at 1021 hPa, fostering light south-southwesterly winds that advect mild air masses northward. Morning overcast skies are expected to yield to partial sunshine, boosting sensible temperatures +2°C above early-April norms of around 15°C, consistent with recent spring warmth trends across Île-de-France. Model ensembles like ECMWF and GFS align on this mild scenario, reflecting above-average solar insolation potential. Realistic challenges include persistent low clouds suppressing highs to 16°C or a sudden wind shift introducing cooler Atlantic air, with resolution hinging on observations from Paris-Montsouris station by midnight.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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