Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to Chicago's highest temperature reaching 46°F or higher on April 7, reflecting the latest National Weather Service extended outlooks and GFS/ECMWF model runs projecting highs near 45°F amid post-frontal recovery from a recent cold snap—April 1's observed high of 39°F, 15°F below normal. This mild rebound follows severe thunderstorms and a 30+°F day-to-day swing earlier this week, with upper-level ridging potentially enhancing solar heating and southerly flow. However, a 25.5% chance for 27°F or below prices in uncertainty from lingering cold air pockets and possible northerly winds, consistent with spring's volatile frontal patterns in the Midwest; new model updates expected daily through resolution at Chicago O'Hare per official NWS data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日4月7日のシカゴの最高気温は？
4月7日のシカゴの最高気温は？
46°F以上 24%
40〜41°F 22%
42～43°F 22%
38〜39°F 20%
新規
新規
2026/04/07
27°F以下
2%
28～29°F
3%
30～31°F
3%
32〜33°F
11%
34～35°F
16%
36〜37°F
17%
38〜39°F
20%
40〜41°F
22%
42～43°F
22%
44〜45°F
18%
46°F以上
24%
46°F以上 24%
40〜41°F 22%
42～43°F 22%
38〜39°F 20%
新規
新規
2026/04/07
27°F以下
$0 Vol.
2%
28～29°F
$0 Vol.
3%
30～31°F
$0 Vol.
3%
32〜33°F
$0 Vol.
11%
34～35°F
$0 Vol.
16%
36〜37°F
$0 Vol.
17%
38〜39°F
$0 Vol.
20%
40〜41°F
$0 Vol.
22%
42～43°F
$0 Vol.
22%
44〜45°F
$18 Vol.
18%
46°F以上
$0 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to Chicago's highest temperature reaching 46°F or higher on April 7, reflecting the latest National Weather Service extended outlooks and GFS/ECMWF model runs projecting highs near 45°F amid post-frontal recovery from a recent cold snap—April 1's observed high of 39°F, 15°F below normal. This mild rebound follows severe thunderstorms and a 30+°F day-to-day swing earlier this week, with upper-level ridging potentially enhancing solar heating and southerly flow. However, a 25.5% chance for 27°F or below prices in uncertainty from lingering cold air pockets and possible northerly winds, consistent with spring's volatile frontal patterns in the Midwest; new model updates expected daily through resolution at Chicago O'Hare per official NWS data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
マーケット開始日： Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
音量
$18終了日
2026/04/07マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to Chicago's highest temperature reaching 46°F or higher on April 7, reflecting the latest National Weather Service extended outlooks and GFS/ECMWF model runs projecting highs near 45°F amid post-frontal recovery from a recent cold snap—April 1's observed high of 39°F, 15°F below normal. This mild rebound follows severe thunderstorms and a 30+°F day-to-day swing earlier this week, with upper-level ridging potentially enhancing solar heating and southerly flow. However, a 25.5% chance for 27°F or below prices in uncertainty from lingering cold air pockets and possible northerly winds, consistent with spring's volatile frontal patterns in the Midwest; new model updates expected daily through resolution at Chicago O'Hare per official NWS data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 7 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
音量
$18終了日
2026/04/07マーケット開始日
Apr 3, 2026, 6:02 AM ETTrader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 50% implied probability to Chicago's highest temperature reaching 46°F or higher on April 7, reflecting the latest National Weather Service extended outlooks and GFS/ECMWF model runs projecting highs near 45°F amid post-frontal recovery from a recent cold snap—April 1's observed high of 39°F, 15°F below normal. This mild rebound follows severe thunderstorms and a 30+°F day-to-day swing earlier this week, with upper-level ridging potentially enhancing solar heating and southerly flow. However, a 25.5% chance for 27°F or below prices in uncertainty from lingering cold air pockets and possible northerly winds, consistent with spring's volatile frontal patterns in the Midwest; new model updates expected daily through resolution at Chicago O'Hare per official NWS data.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約 · 更新日
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