Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's total prison time remains fragmented amid his deteriorating health—chronic myeloid leukemia, heart issues, and repeated hospitalizations—and an impending third New York rape retrial starting April 14 on a charge carrying up to four years. No Prison Time leads at 33.4% implied probability, fueled by his age (74), time served exceeding four years, and January plea deal considerations that fizzled, alongside ongoing California appeal of the standing 16-year rape sentence. Mid-range outcomes like 20-30 years (23.1%) and 10-20 years (21.5%) reflect uncertainty over sentencing for his June 2025 New York criminal sexual act conviction (up to 25 years) and potential consecutive terms, with traders eyeing health-driven compassionate release or further appeals as key swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日ハーヴェイ・ワインスタインの実刑判決？
ハーヴェイ・ワインスタインの実刑判決？
実刑なし 33.4%
20〜30年 23.1%
10〜20年 21.5%
30年以上 7.6%
$813,036 Vol.
$813,036 Vol.
2025/12/31
実刑なし
33%
5年未満
6%
5～10年
6%
10〜20年
22%
20〜30年
23%
30年以上
8%
実刑なし 33.4%
20〜30年 23.1%
10〜20年 21.5%
30年以上 7.6%
$813,036 Vol.
$813,036 Vol.
2025/12/31
実刑なし
$314,812 Vol.
33%
5年未満
$84,602 Vol.
6%
5～10年
$48,825 Vol.
6%
10〜20年
$135,754 Vol.
22%
20〜30年
$176,148 Vol.
23%
30年以上
$52,895 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's total prison time remains fragmented amid his deteriorating health—chronic myeloid leukemia, heart issues, and repeated hospitalizations—and an impending third New York rape retrial starting April 14 on a charge carrying up to four years. No Prison Time leads at 33.4% implied probability, fueled by his age (74), time served exceeding four years, and January plea deal considerations that fizzled, alongside ongoing California appeal of the standing 16-year rape sentence. Mid-range outcomes like 20-30 years (23.1%) and 10-20 years (21.5%) reflect uncertainty over sentencing for his June 2025 New York criminal sexual act conviction (up to 25 years) and potential consecutive terms, with traders eyeing health-driven compassionate release or further appeals as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
音量
$813,036終了日
2025/12/31マーケット開始日
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's total prison time remains fragmented amid his deteriorating health—chronic myeloid leukemia, heart issues, and repeated hospitalizations—and an impending third New York rape retrial starting April 14 on a charge carrying up to four years. No Prison Time leads at 33.4% implied probability, fueled by his age (74), time served exceeding four years, and January plea deal considerations that fizzled, alongside ongoing California appeal of the standing 16-year rape sentence. Mid-range outcomes like 20-30 years (23.1%) and 10-20 years (21.5%) reflect uncertainty over sentencing for his June 2025 New York criminal sexual act conviction (up to 25 years) and potential consecutive terms, with traders eyeing health-driven compassionate release or further appeals as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$813,036終了日
2025/12/31マーケット開始日
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Harvey Weinstein's total prison time remains fragmented amid his deteriorating health—chronic myeloid leukemia, heart issues, and repeated hospitalizations—and an impending third New York rape retrial starting April 14 on a charge carrying up to four years. No Prison Time leads at 33.4% implied probability, fueled by his age (74), time served exceeding four years, and January plea deal considerations that fizzled, alongside ongoing California appeal of the standing 16-year rape sentence. Mid-range outcomes like 20-30 years (23.1%) and 10-20 years (21.5%) reflect uncertainty over sentencing for his June 2025 New York criminal sexual act conviction (up to 25 years) and potential consecutive terms, with traders eyeing health-driven compassionate release or further appeals as key swing factors.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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