Ruling coalition statements and parliamentary arithmetic point to continuity for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan through the end of 2026. Senior advisers and ministers have publicly outlined plans for an early April 2028 vote that would use constitutional provisions to permit a third term, requiring 360 votes in the 600-seat assembly where the AKP-MHP alliance holds 326 seats. Recent opposition setbacks, including mayoral defections to the ruling party and legal actions against rivals, have further reduced near-term pressure for change. Trader pricing near 5-6% Yes on removal by December 31, 2026, aligns with the absence of scheduled votes, summits, or economic triggers capable of forcing an immediate exit before the next electoral cycle.