Erdoğan’s current presidential term extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitutional two-term limit, with the next scheduled election no earlier than May 2028. Recent court rulings annulling the main opposition CHP’s 2023 leadership election and sidelining its head have further consolidated the ruling alliance’s position ahead of any potential early vote. No formal removal process, snap election trigger, or verified incapacity event has materialized in 2025–2026, while statements from Erdoğan indicate continuity rather than departure. These structural and political factors underpin the 91.5% trader-implied probability that he remains in office past December 31, 2026. Late developments such as a sudden health crisis, major corruption verdict reversal, or unexpected constitutional amendment could still shift the outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$440,509 Vol.
$440,509 Vol.
2026/12/31
4%を獲得
はい
$440,509 Vol.
$440,509 Vol.
2026/12/31
4%を獲得
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Erdoğan’s current presidential term extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitutional two-term limit, with the next scheduled election no earlier than May 2028. Recent court rulings annulling the main opposition CHP’s 2023 leadership election and sidelining its head have further consolidated the ruling alliance’s position ahead of any potential early vote. No formal removal process, snap election trigger, or verified incapacity event has materialized in 2025–2026, while statements from Erdoğan indicate continuity rather than departure. These structural and political factors underpin the 91.5% trader-implied probability that he remains in office past December 31, 2026. Late developments such as a sudden health crisis, major corruption verdict reversal, or unexpected constitutional amendment could still shift the outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
音量
$440,509終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETリゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Erdoğan’s current presidential term extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitutional two-term limit, with the next scheduled election no earlier than May 2028. Recent court rulings annulling the main opposition CHP’s 2023 leadership election and sidelining its head have further consolidated the ruling alliance’s position ahead of any potential early vote. No formal removal process, snap election trigger, or verified incapacity event has materialized in 2025–2026, while statements from Erdoğan indicate continuity rather than departure. These structural and political factors underpin the 91.5% trader-implied probability that he remains in office past December 31, 2026. Late developments such as a sudden health crisis, major corruption verdict reversal, or unexpected constitutional amendment could still shift the outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$440,622終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETリゾルバー
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Erdoğan’s current presidential term extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitutional two-term limit, with the next scheduled election no earlier than May 2028. Recent court rulings annulling the main opposition CHP’s 2023 leadership election and sidelining its head have further consolidated the ruling alliance’s position ahead of any potential early vote. No formal removal process, snap election trigger, or verified incapacity event has materialized in 2025–2026, while statements from Erdoğan indicate continuity rather than departure. These structural and political factors underpin the 91.5% trader-implied probability that he remains in office past December 31, 2026. Late developments such as a sudden health crisis, major corruption verdict reversal, or unexpected constitutional amendment could still shift the outlook.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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