Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by persistent eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target amid energy price surges from the Iran war and Middle East tensions. The ECB's Governing Council held key rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting, with deposit facility at 2.00%, while revising 2026 inflation forecasts upward to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing intensified upside inflation risks and downside growth pressures. President Lagarde emphasized policy agility amid stagflation concerns, and Bundesbank chief Nagel signaled a possible June hike if inflation persists. Markets now price hikes over cuts, with IMF projections for 50 basis points tightening, reflecting the ECB's hawkish pivot that diminishes rate cut prospects barring de-escalation or sharp economic contraction. The next policy decision is June 10.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
$27,663 Vol.
$27,663 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$27,663 Vol.
$27,663 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by persistent eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target amid energy price surges from the Iran war and Middle East tensions. The ECB's Governing Council held key rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting, with deposit facility at 2.00%, while revising 2026 inflation forecasts upward to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing intensified upside inflation risks and downside growth pressures. President Lagarde emphasized policy agility amid stagflation concerns, and Bundesbank chief Nagel signaled a possible June hike if inflation persists. Markets now price hikes over cuts, with IMF projections for 50 basis points tightening, reflecting the ECB's hawkish pivot that diminishes rate cut prospects barring de-escalation or sharp economic contraction. The next policy decision is June 10.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ET
Volume
$27,663Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by persistent eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target amid energy price surges from the Iran war and Middle East tensions. The ECB's Governing Council held key rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting, with deposit facility at 2.00%, while revising 2026 inflation forecasts upward to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing intensified upside inflation risks and downside growth pressures. President Lagarde emphasized policy agility amid stagflation concerns, and Bundesbank chief Nagel signaled a possible June hike if inflation persists. Markets now price hikes over cuts, with IMF projections for 50 basis points tightening, reflecting the ECB's hawkish pivot that diminishes rate cut prospects barring de-escalation or sharp economic contraction. The next policy decision is June 10.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is decreased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate decrease has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$27,663Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an 87% implied probability against an ECB rate cut in 2026, driven by persistent eurozone inflation exceeding the 2% target amid energy price surges from the Iran war and Middle East tensions. The ECB's Governing Council held key rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting, with deposit facility at 2.00%, while revising 2026 inflation forecasts upward to 2.6% from 1.9%, citing intensified upside inflation risks and downside growth pressures. President Lagarde emphasized policy agility amid stagflation concerns, and Bundesbank chief Nagel signaled a possible June hike if inflation persists. Markets now price hikes over cuts, with IMF projections for 50 basis points tightening, reflecting the ECB's hawkish pivot that diminishes rate cut prospects barring de-escalation or sharp economic contraction. The next policy decision is June 10.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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