Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated euro-area energy costs and pushed ECB staff projections for headline inflation to 2.6 percent in 2026, well above the 2 percent target. In response, the Governing Council maintained its deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent through April while adopting a data-dependent stance and explicitly flagging upside risks from second-round effects. Money markets and economist surveys now price at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year, with some forecasts embedding further increases by September. This shift from earlier cut expectations reflects traders’ assessment that persistent price pressures will prompt tightening absent a swift energy-price reversal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAumento dei tassi della BCE nel 2026?
Aumento dei tassi della BCE nel 2026?
Sì
$115,055 Vol.
$115,055 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$115,055 Vol.
$115,055 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated euro-area energy costs and pushed ECB staff projections for headline inflation to 2.6 percent in 2026, well above the 2 percent target. In response, the Governing Council maintained its deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent through April while adopting a data-dependent stance and explicitly flagging upside risks from second-round effects. Money markets and economist surveys now price at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year, with some forecasts embedding further increases by September. This shift from earlier cut expectations reflects traders’ assessment that persistent price pressures will prompt tightening absent a swift energy-price reversal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$115,055Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated euro-area energy costs and pushed ECB staff projections for headline inflation to 2.6 percent in 2026, well above the 2 percent target. In response, the Governing Council maintained its deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent through April while adopting a data-dependent stance and explicitly flagging upside risks from second-round effects. Money markets and economist surveys now price at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year, with some forecasts embedding further increases by September. This shift from earlier cut expectations reflects traders’ assessment that persistent price pressures will prompt tightening absent a swift energy-price reversal.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) deposit facility rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the conclusion of the ECB's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 16-17, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the ECB has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. If, however, the ECB’s December meeting is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or the rate change decision for that meeting is otherwise unknown by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate increase has occurred, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the European Central Bank (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$115,055Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 23, 2025, 5:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated euro-area energy costs and pushed ECB staff projections for headline inflation to 2.6 percent in 2026, well above the 2 percent target. In response, the Governing Council maintained its deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent through April while adopting a data-dependent stance and explicitly flagging upside risks from second-round effects. Money markets and economist surveys now price at least one 25-basis-point hike by mid-year, with some forecasts embedding further increases by September. This shift from earlier cut expectations reflects traders’ assessment that persistent price pressures will prompt tightening absent a swift energy-price reversal.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti