Market-implied odds assign an 88.5 percent probability to a 25-basis-point ECB rate increase at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting trader consensus on heightened inflation risks from recent energy-price shocks tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions. Following the April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent, ECB staff projections now show 2026 headline inflation averaging 2.6 percent, with core measures also elevated and upside risks intensified. This positions an insurance hike as the base case to limit second-round effects, even as euro-area growth forecasts remain subdued near 0.9 percent. Recent economist surveys align with money-market pricing for at least one quarter-point tightening by mid-year, while the June 10–11 Governing Council meeting remains the primary near-term catalyst that could shift the market-implied rate path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 89%
No change 11.4%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$294,805 Vol.
$294,805 Vol.
11 giu 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
11%
25 bps Increase
89%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 89%
No change 11.4%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$294,805 Vol.
$294,805 Vol.
11 giu 2026
50+ bps decrease
$60,661 Vol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$48,014 Vol.
<1%
No change
$54,557 Vol.
11%
25 bps Increase
$76,002 Vol.
89%
50+ bps increase
$55,572 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Market-implied odds assign an 88.5 percent probability to a 25-basis-point ECB rate increase at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting trader consensus on heightened inflation risks from recent energy-price shocks tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions. Following the April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent, ECB staff projections now show 2026 headline inflation averaging 2.6 percent, with core measures also elevated and upside risks intensified. This positions an insurance hike as the base case to limit second-round effects, even as euro-area growth forecasts remain subdued near 0.9 percent. Recent economist surveys align with money-market pricing for at least one quarter-point tightening by mid-year, while the June 10–11 Governing Council meeting remains the primary near-term catalyst that could shift the market-implied rate path.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Mercato aperto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$294,805Data di fine
11 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Market-implied odds assign an 88.5 percent probability to a 25-basis-point ECB rate increase at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting trader consensus on heightened inflation risks from recent energy-price shocks tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions. Following the April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent, ECB staff projections now show 2026 headline inflation averaging 2.6 percent, with core measures also elevated and upside risks intensified. This positions an insurance hike as the base case to limit second-round effects, even as euro-area growth forecasts remain subdued near 0.9 percent. Recent economist surveys align with money-market pricing for at least one quarter-point tightening by mid-year, while the June 10–11 Governing Council meeting remains the primary near-term catalyst that could shift the market-implied rate path.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Volume
$294,805Data di fine
11 giu 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds assign an 88.5 percent probability to a 25-basis-point ECB rate increase at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting trader consensus on heightened inflation risks from recent energy-price shocks tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions. Following the April 30 decision to hold the deposit facility rate at 2.00 percent, ECB staff projections now show 2026 headline inflation averaging 2.6 percent, with core measures also elevated and upside risks intensified. This positions an insurance hike as the base case to limit second-round effects, even as euro-area growth forecasts remain subdued near 0.9 percent. Recent economist surveys align with money-market pricing for at least one quarter-point tightening by mid-year, while the June 10–11 Governing Council meeting remains the primary near-term catalyst that could shift the market-implied rate path.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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