Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede the rest of Donbas before 2027, anchored by President Zelenskyy's March 25 interview rejecting U.S. proposals linking security guarantees to territorial concessions in the region, which he deemed unacceptable to the public and unconstitutional. Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reinforced this stance, declaring Donbas—defended with soldiers' blood—non-negotiable. Recent peace talks have stalled over Russia's insistence on full Donbas control, while Institute for the Study of War analysis shows Russian forces unlikely to capture the remainder before late 2027 amid slow advances. These diplomatic impasses and resolute Ukrainian positions drive the market's strong skepticism toward any pre-2027 agreement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourL'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ?
L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ?
Oui
$50,793 Vol.
$50,793 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$50,793 Vol.
$50,793 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede the rest of Donbas before 2027, anchored by President Zelenskyy's March 25 interview rejecting U.S. proposals linking security guarantees to territorial concessions in the region, which he deemed unacceptable to the public and unconstitutional. Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reinforced this stance, declaring Donbas—defended with soldiers' blood—non-negotiable. Recent peace talks have stalled over Russia's insistence on full Donbas control, while Institute for the Study of War analysis shows Russian forces unlikely to capture the remainder before late 2027 amid slow advances. These diplomatic impasses and resolute Ukrainian positions drive the market's strong skepticism toward any pre-2027 agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ET
Volume
$50,793Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede the rest of Donbas before 2027, anchored by President Zelenskyy's March 25 interview rejecting U.S. proposals linking security guarantees to territorial concessions in the region, which he deemed unacceptable to the public and unconstitutional. Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reinforced this stance, declaring Donbas—defended with soldiers' blood—non-negotiable. Recent peace talks have stalled over Russia's insistence on full Donbas control, while Institute for the Study of War analysis shows Russian forces unlikely to capture the remainder before late 2027 amid slow advances. These diplomatic impasses and resolute Ukrainian positions drive the market's strong skepticism toward any pre-2027 agreement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$50,793Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede the rest of Donbas before 2027, anchored by President Zelenskyy's March 25 interview rejecting U.S. proposals linking security guarantees to territorial concessions in the region, which he deemed unacceptable to the public and unconstitutional. Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reinforced this stance, declaring Donbas—defended with soldiers' blood—non-negotiable. Recent peace talks have stalled over Russia's insistence on full Donbas control, while Institute for the Study of War analysis shows Russian forces unlikely to capture the remainder before late 2027 amid slow advances. These diplomatic impasses and resolute Ukrainian positions drive the market's strong skepticism toward any pre-2027 agreement.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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