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L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ?

Market icon

L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Oui

14% chance
Polymarket

$50,793 Vol.

Oui

14% chance
Polymarket

$50,793 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede the rest of Donbas before 2027, anchored by President Zelenskyy's March 25 interview rejecting U.S. proposals linking security guarantees to territorial concessions in the region, which he deemed unacceptable to the public and unconstitutional. Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reinforced this stance, declaring Donbas—defended with soldiers' blood—non-negotiable. Recent peace talks have stalled over Russia's insistence on full Donbas control, while Institute for the Study of War analysis shows Russian forces unlikely to capture the remainder before late 2027 amid slow advances. These diplomatic impasses and resolute Ukrainian positions drive the market's strong skepticism toward any pre-2027 agreement.

Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede the rest of Donbas before 2027, anchored by President Zelenskyy's March 25 interview rejecting U.S. proposals linking security guarantees to territorial concessions in the region, which he deemed unacceptable to the public and unconstitutional. Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reinforced this stance, declaring Donbas—defended with soldiers' blood—non-negotiable. Recent peace talks have stalled over Russia's insistence on full Donbas control, while Institute for the Study of War analysis shows Russian forces unlikely to capture the remainder before late 2027 amid slow advances. These diplomatic impasses and resolute Ukrainian positions drive the market's strong skepticism toward any pre-2027 agreement.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede the rest of Donbas before 2027, anchored by President Zelenskyy's March 25 interview rejecting U.S. proposals linking security guarantees to territorial concessions in the region, which he deemed unacceptable to the public and unconstitutional. Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reinforced this stance, declaring Donbas—defended with soldiers' blood—non-negotiable. Recent peace talks have stalled over Russia's insistence on full Donbas control, while Institute for the Study of War analysis shows Russian forces unlikely to capture the remainder before late 2027 amid slow advances. These diplomatic impasses and resolute Ukrainian positions drive the market's strong skepticism toward any pre-2027 agreement.

Trader consensus reflects an 86.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede the rest of Donbas before 2027, anchored by President Zelenskyy's March 25 interview rejecting U.S. proposals linking security guarantees to territorial concessions in the region, which he deemed unacceptable to the public and unconstitutional. Ukrainian military commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reinforced this stance, declaring Donbas—defended with soldiers' blood—non-negotiable. Recent peace talks have stalled over Russia's insistence on full Donbas control, while Institute for the Study of War analysis shows Russian forces unlikely to capture the remainder before late 2027 amid slow advances. These diplomatic impasses and resolute Ukrainian positions drive the market's strong skepticism toward any pre-2027 agreement.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ? » à 14%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 14¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ? » a généré $50.8K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 5, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ? » est « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ? » à 14%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.