Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede the remainder of Donbas before 2027, driven by President Zelenskyy's repeated public rejections of territorial concessions and insistence on full territorial integrity. In a March 26 Reuters interview, Zelenskyy revealed U.S. proposals linking security guarantees to Donbas withdrawal—a plan echoing stalled February Geneva peace talks where Russia demanded the region—but U.S. officials like Senator Rubio promptly denied pressuring Kyiv. Absent parliamentary approval or a national referendum, such a concession faces steep domestic barriers, while ongoing frontline stalemates and failed trilateral diplomacy underscore limited de-escalation prospects through 2026. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs remain possible but unlikely given entrenched positions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourL'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ?
L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ?
Oui
$50,422 Vol.
$50,422 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$50,422 Vol.
$50,422 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede the remainder of Donbas before 2027, driven by President Zelenskyy's repeated public rejections of territorial concessions and insistence on full territorial integrity. In a March 26 Reuters interview, Zelenskyy revealed U.S. proposals linking security guarantees to Donbas withdrawal—a plan echoing stalled February Geneva peace talks where Russia demanded the region—but U.S. officials like Senator Rubio promptly denied pressuring Kyiv. Absent parliamentary approval or a national referendum, such a concession faces steep domestic barriers, while ongoing frontline stalemates and failed trilateral diplomacy underscore limited de-escalation prospects through 2026. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs remain possible but unlikely given entrenched positions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ET
Volume
$50,422Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede the remainder of Donbas before 2027, driven by President Zelenskyy's repeated public rejections of territorial concessions and insistence on full territorial integrity. In a March 26 Reuters interview, Zelenskyy revealed U.S. proposals linking security guarantees to Donbas withdrawal—a plan echoing stalled February Geneva peace talks where Russia demanded the region—but U.S. officials like Senator Rubio promptly denied pressuring Kyiv. Absent parliamentary approval or a national referendum, such a concession faces steep domestic barriers, while ongoing frontline stalemates and failed trilateral diplomacy underscore limited de-escalation prospects through 2026. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs remain possible but unlikely given entrenched positions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$50,422Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 86.5% implied probability that Ukraine will not agree to cede the remainder of Donbas before 2027, driven by President Zelenskyy's repeated public rejections of territorial concessions and insistence on full territorial integrity. In a March 26 Reuters interview, Zelenskyy revealed U.S. proposals linking security guarantees to Donbas withdrawal—a plan echoing stalled February Geneva peace talks where Russia demanded the region—but U.S. officials like Senator Rubio promptly denied pressuring Kyiv. Absent parliamentary approval or a national referendum, such a concession faces steep domestic barriers, while ongoing frontline stalemates and failed trilateral diplomacy underscore limited de-escalation prospects through 2026. Late-breaking diplomatic breakthroughs remain possible but unlikely given entrenched positions.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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