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L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ?

Market icon

L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Oui

14% chance
Polymarket

$50,422 Vol.

Oui

14% chance
Polymarket

$50,422 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects Ukraine's steadfast refusal to cede the remaining Ukrainian-controlled portions of Donbas amid stalled peace talks with Russia, as President Zelenskyy reiterated on March 25, 2026, that Kyiv would reject any deal handing over the region despite U.S. pressure for concessions tied to security guarantees—a claim promptly denied by U.S. Secretary of State Rubio. Zelenskyy and Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi have consistently emphasized defending territorial integrity, citing public opposition and the blood shed by Ukrainian forces, while polls show limited domestic support for such compromises without ironclad protections. Russia's insistence on full Donbas control has deadlocked negotiations since January, with no diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 30 days and ongoing frontline stalemates reducing near-term concession incentives before 2027. Late-breaking military collapses or shifted Western aid could alter dynamics, but current evidence points to prolonged impasse.

Trader consensus reflects Ukraine's steadfast refusal to cede the remaining Ukrainian-controlled portions of Donbas amid stalled peace talks with Russia, as President Zelenskyy reiterated on March 25, 2026, that Kyiv would reject any deal handing over the region despite U.S. pressure for concessions tied to security guarantees—a claim promptly denied by U.S. Secretary of State Rubio. Zelenskyy and Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi have consistently emphasized defending territorial integrity, citing public opposition and the blood shed by Ukrainian forces, while polls show limited domestic support for such compromises without ironclad protections. Russia's insistence on full Donbas control has deadlocked negotiations since January, with no diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 30 days and ongoing frontline stalemates reducing near-term concession incentives before 2027. Late-breaking military collapses or shifted Western aid could alter dynamics, but current evidence points to prolonged impasse.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects Ukraine's steadfast refusal to cede the remaining Ukrainian-controlled portions of Donbas amid stalled peace talks with Russia, as President Zelenskyy reiterated on March 25, 2026, that Kyiv would reject any deal handing over the region despite U.S. pressure for concessions tied to security guarantees—a claim promptly denied by U.S. Secretary of State Rubio. Zelenskyy and Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi have consistently emphasized defending territorial integrity, citing public opposition and the blood shed by Ukrainian forces, while polls show limited domestic support for such compromises without ironclad protections. Russia's insistence on full Donbas control has deadlocked negotiations since January, with no diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 30 days and ongoing frontline stalemates reducing near-term concession incentives before 2027. Late-breaking military collapses or shifted Western aid could alter dynamics, but current evidence points to prolonged impasse.

Trader consensus reflects Ukraine's steadfast refusal to cede the remaining Ukrainian-controlled portions of Donbas amid stalled peace talks with Russia, as President Zelenskyy reiterated on March 25, 2026, that Kyiv would reject any deal handing over the region despite U.S. pressure for concessions tied to security guarantees—a claim promptly denied by U.S. Secretary of State Rubio. Zelenskyy and Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi have consistently emphasized defending territorial integrity, citing public opposition and the blood shed by Ukrainian forces, while polls show limited domestic support for such compromises without ironclad protections. Russia's insistence on full Donbas control has deadlocked negotiations since January, with no diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 30 days and ongoing frontline stalemates reducing near-term concession incentives before 2027. Late-breaking military collapses or shifted Western aid could alter dynamics, but current evidence points to prolonged impasse.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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« L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ? » à 14%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 14¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ? » a généré $50.4K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 5, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ? » est « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle de céder le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ? » à 14%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.