Trader consensus reflects Ukraine's steadfast refusal to cede the remaining Ukrainian-controlled portions of Donbas amid stalled peace talks with Russia, as President Zelenskyy reiterated on March 25, 2026, that Kyiv would reject any deal handing over the region despite U.S. pressure for concessions tied to security guarantees—a claim promptly denied by U.S. Secretary of State Rubio. Zelenskyy and Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi have consistently emphasized defending territorial integrity, citing public opposition and the blood shed by Ukrainian forces, while polls show limited domestic support for such compromises without ironclad protections. Russia's insistence on full Donbas control has deadlocked negotiations since January, with no diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 30 days and ongoing frontline stalemates reducing near-term concession incentives before 2027. Late-breaking military collapses or shifted Western aid could alter dynamics, but current evidence points to prolonged impasse.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourL'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ?
L'Ukraine acceptera-t-elle d'abandonner le reste du Donbass avant 2027 ?
Oui
$50,422 Vol.
$50,422 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$50,422 Vol.
$50,422 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects Ukraine's steadfast refusal to cede the remaining Ukrainian-controlled portions of Donbas amid stalled peace talks with Russia, as President Zelenskyy reiterated on March 25, 2026, that Kyiv would reject any deal handing over the region despite U.S. pressure for concessions tied to security guarantees—a claim promptly denied by U.S. Secretary of State Rubio. Zelenskyy and Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi have consistently emphasized defending territorial integrity, citing public opposition and the blood shed by Ukrainian forces, while polls show limited domestic support for such compromises without ironclad protections. Russia's insistence on full Donbas control has deadlocked negotiations since January, with no diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 30 days and ongoing frontline stalemates reducing near-term concession incentives before 2027. Late-breaking military collapses or shifted Western aid could alter dynamics, but current evidence points to prolonged impasse.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ET
Volume
$50,422Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects Ukraine's steadfast refusal to cede the remaining Ukrainian-controlled portions of Donbas amid stalled peace talks with Russia, as President Zelenskyy reiterated on March 25, 2026, that Kyiv would reject any deal handing over the region despite U.S. pressure for concessions tied to security guarantees—a claim promptly denied by U.S. Secretary of State Rubio. Zelenskyy and Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi have consistently emphasized defending territorial integrity, citing public opposition and the blood shed by Ukrainian forces, while polls show limited domestic support for such compromises without ironclad protections. Russia's insistence on full Donbas control has deadlocked negotiations since January, with no diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 30 days and ongoing frontline stalemates reducing near-term concession incentives before 2027. Late-breaking military collapses or shifted Western aid could alter dynamics, but current evidence points to prolonged impasse.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Volume
$50,422Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 1:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects Ukraine's steadfast refusal to cede the remaining Ukrainian-controlled portions of Donbas amid stalled peace talks with Russia, as President Zelenskyy reiterated on March 25, 2026, that Kyiv would reject any deal handing over the region despite U.S. pressure for concessions tied to security guarantees—a claim promptly denied by U.S. Secretary of State Rubio. Zelenskyy and Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi have consistently emphasized defending territorial integrity, citing public opposition and the blood shed by Ukrainian forces, while polls show limited domestic support for such compromises without ironclad protections. Russia's insistence on full Donbas control has deadlocked negotiations since January, with no diplomatic breakthroughs in the past 30 days and ongoing frontline stalemates reducing near-term concession incentives before 2027. Late-breaking military collapses or shifted Western aid could alter dynamics, but current evidence points to prolonged impasse.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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