Name: Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?
Start: 2025-05-22T18:16:28.040082Z
End: 2025-06-30T12:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

Show/hide language selector in navigation

language_selector

Auto-detect and redirect based on browser language

auto_locale_detection

On May 22, 2025, the Trump administration announced it was revoking Harvard University’s certification to enroll international students, escalating its pressure campaign against elite universities (see: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/22/us/politics/trump-harvard-international-students.html).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration publicly announces that Harvard University’s ability to enroll international students—revoked by the administration in May 2025—has been reinstated, restored, or otherwise unfrozen between May 22 and June 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?

President Donald Trump has signed a proclamation to suspend visas for new international students at Harvard University, citing national security concerns and the university's failure to disclose information about foreign students. This move escalates his ongoing conflict with the institution, significantly impacting its ability to enroll foreign students.

Trump Bans Harvard Visas

JUST IN - Trump signs proclamation to restrict the entry of "nonimmigrant" foreign students at Harvard. https://t.co/n54bWG6Ogr

BREAKING: Trump bans visas for foreign students at Harvard - AFP

Trump suspends foreign student visas at Harvard https://t.co/aTtqZvKeIF

HARVARD: President Trump just issued an executive order revoking Harvard’s authorization to enroll foreign students via the federal government’s SEVP program, citing, among other things, Harvard’s failure to fully disclose discipline of foreign students, until Harvard complies. https://t.co/V8vydtRyod

Trump suspends foreign student visas at Harvard University amid national security concerns https://t.co/TXHZhXNF7C

This is outrageous … and stupid. We have no chance of competing with China if we cripple one of our best universities and alienate the best and brightest from around the world. 
“Trump bans Harvard from admitting new international students” https://t.co/dSRwkjr85D

🚨 BREAKING: Trump officially restricts foreign visas for Harvard University.

FAFO. https://t.co/yUIEXoRK6A

BREAKING: President Trump bars most international students from entering the U.S. to study at Harvard University. https://t.co/MM9Qmu6Mmu

BREAKING: Trump administration is banning visas for foreign students at Harvard

BREAKING: Trump has banned all foreign-national Harvard students and researchers from entering the US on student or foreign exchange visas. Shifts legal fight from one over State and DHS powers to presidential powers

President Trump signs a proclamation to suspend visas for new Harvard international students. https://t.co/iZWKg2JLwR

🚨🚨🚨 In the last two hours, the Trump admin:

- Banned all immigrant visas from 19 countries, including Cuba, Haiti, and Venezuela
- Banned all student and researcher visas to Harvard
- Colluded with Texas to kick 20,000 undocumented college students off of in-state tuition.

Breaking News: Seeking a way around the courts, President Trump issued an order that he said would stop Harvard’s international students from entering the U.S. https://t.co/3T0jTAhVZp

"You were perfectly willing to limit the free speech of every conservative on campus for literally YEARS." 

@benshapiro DESTROYS the Left's narrative that Trump's war on Harvard is an attack on free speech. https://t.co/9eLfUcWRym

Absolute insanity. The damage Trump is doing to our country is incalculable. https://t.co/EYfss5bB6A

🇺🇸 | URGENTE: Donald Trump firma la proclamación para restringir el ingreso de estudiantes extranjeros "no inmigrantes" a Harvard. https://t.co/suYfi6HQuY

🇺🇸 | URGENTE: El presidente Trump restringe la entrada a Estados Unidos de estudiantes extranjeros de Harvard.

I wonder what Trump's friends in Saudi Arabia, or Modi in India, or Bibi in Israel, think of Trump's ban on students from their countries from studying at Harvard?

So tonight Trump has:

- Announced a travel ban from a dozen countries

- Banned most international students going to Harvard from entering the country

- Launching an investigation into Biden

In the latest escalation of the White House’s fight with Harvard University, President Trump signed a proclamation Wednesday blocking foreign students from entering the U.S. to attend the school.

Follow live updates: https://t.co/Iil1hZRU6D

President Trump is hitting the elites where it hurts: their woke indoctrination factories. Tonight on Glenn TV, @benshapiro and I break down why Trump's war on Harvard is NOT an attack on free speech. https://t.co/wwwxwwegVs

Donald Trump has signed a proclamation to suspend visas for new international students at Harvard University. https://t.co/li3i4gJCEA

JUST IN 🔴

Trump signs proclamation restricting foreign student visas at Harvard. https://t.co/DX76a3ULiu

New: Trump says in a new escalation that he is banning foreign students from getting visas to study at Harvard, invoking presidential powers under the Immigration and Naturalization Act as he complains about them not giving DHS information about foreign students

President Donald Trump on Wednesday sought to restrict international students and scholars from entering the country to attend, conduct research or teach at Harvard University. 

https://t.co/8kGTB0GPuD

A federal judge has issued a preliminary injunction blocking the Trump administration's attempt to revoke Harvard University's ability to enroll international students. The administration initially reversed course by granting Harvard 30 days to challenge the policy, but the court's ruling extends protection for the university's foreign student program.

Trump's Harvard Visa Block

Trump administration reverses course, giving Harvard 30 days to challenge its bid to strip university of the ability to host international students
https://t.co/0Fdotcd6Hu

Trump administration reverses course, giving Harvard 30 days to challenge its bid to strip university of the ability to host international students
https://t.co/fzRSf8q3vA

Reuters: US JUDGE SAYS SHE PLANS TO ISSUE INJUNCTION BLOCKING TRUMP ADMINISTRATION FROM IMMEDIATELY REVOKING HARVARD'S ABILITY TO ENROLL FOREIGN STUDENTS

🇺🇸 | URGENTE: Juez estadounidense dice que bloqueará congelamiento de Trump a estudiantes extranjeros en Harvard.

BREAKING via NYT: "Judge Rejects Trump Effort to Block Harvard From Enrolling Foreign Students"  🎁 🔗 

https://t.co/SiWXTT6Bzx

MAJOR UPDATE: The Trump administration has been BLOCKED in court from kicking out Harvard’s international students.

This fight is about defending students and protecting America's economic advantage to attract the best and brightest from around the world. https://t.co/9F9UmnFKa6

Another loss in court for Trump Admin.

Judge plans to block administration from restricting foreign students at Harvard University

https://t.co/3hh5C1qF5y

Judge says she will issue a preliminary injunction to block Trump administration from making changes to Harvard's student visa program indefinitely https://t.co/XJOB8ToJwf

#BREAKING: Judge sides with Harvard against Trump visa block https://t.co/IvjgNslpmc

🚨NEW: U.S. District Court Judge Allison Burroughs has extended her order blocking the Trump Administration from revoking Harvard University's ability to enroll foreign students.

RETWEET to thank Judge Burroughs for standing up for our democracy! https://t.co/8EyURKScEH

Breaking News: A federal judge said she would block the Trump administration’s efforts to prevent Harvard from enrolling international students. https://t.co/qqQv8kZxQ7

A federal judge has extended an order that blocks the Trump administration’s attempt to prevent international students from enrolling at Harvard. https://t.co/e417PLdyV9

BREAKING: A federal judge plans to block the Trump administration from restricting foreign students at Harvard University.  https://t.co/p7kng7VY88

El Gobierno de Trump da marcha atrás: Harvard tiene 30 días para defender su derecho de recibir estudiantes internacionales
https://t.co/4ZCFvaGkDV

BREAKING: A federal judge plans to issue a preliminary injunction that would stop Pres. Trump's administration from revoking Harvard's ability to enroll international students.

ABC News' @SelinaWangTV reports.

Read more: https://t.co/HOgB416LZ5 https://t.co/IRTZeT0iM7

NEW: Judge extends block on Trump bid to boot out Harvard's foreign students. This after DHS basically issued Harvard a 30-day reprieve, while not conceding Noem erred by "immediately" revoking school's status last week. w/@kellygarrity3 @biancaquilan https://t.co/CrHTjBXQ1z

BREAKING: Judge extends a temporary order to block the Trump administration's revocation of Harvard University's ability to enroll international students. https://t.co/AGcSlBMQox

President Donald Trump has announced he is considering reallocating $3 billion in federal grant money from Harvard University to trade schools across the country, escalating tensions with the institution. He has also demanded a list of Harvard's international students, intensifying his administration's standoff with the university over transparency and funding issues.

Trump Targets Harvard Funding

🇺🇸 | URGENTE: Trump: "Estoy considerando quitarle tres mil millones de dólares en subvenciones a una Harvard muy antisemita y dárselos a ESCUELAS DE OFICIOS en todo nuestro país". https://t.co/X1vi5HAlD9

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump says he’s considering pulling THREE BILLION DOLLARS from Harvard and giving it to TRADE SCHOOLS across the country

YES! DO IT @realDonaldTrump! 🔥 https://t.co/eI0e3XeROg

🚨| ÚLTIMA HORA: El presidente Trump anuncia que está considerando quitarle $3 mil millones en subvenciones a Harvard y dárselos a ESCUELAS DE OFICIOS en todo Estados Unidos. ¿Apoyas que Trump le corte el suministro a los progres de Harvard? Yo al 💯 % https://t.co/7YQP06ZZkK

Donald Trump Truth Social 05.26.25 08:42 AM EST

We are still waiting for the Foreign Student Lists from Harvard so that we can determine, after a ridiculous expenditure of BILLIONS OF DOLLARS, how many radicalized lunatics, troublemakers all, should not be let back into our

🚨JUST IN🚨

President Trump says Harvard hasn’t handed over their list of foreign students.

The list will be used to block far-left students from getting back into the country.

Trump calls out Harvard for shopping around for favorable judges to hear their case. https://t.co/xhY3MqVSPy

Why is Trump going after Harvard? 

Well… https://t.co/iObWDKXoNv

Donald Trump Truth Social 05.26.25 08:27 AM EST

I am considering taking Three Billion Dollars of Grant Money away from a very antisemitic Harvard, and giving it to TRADE SCHOOLS all across our land. What a great investment that would be for the USA, and so badly needed!!!

BREAKING: President Trump is considering taking away $3 Billion in grant money from Harvard and giving it to Trade Schools instead.

Do it! https://t.co/kGgX53iOSE

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump announces he is considering taking away $3B in grant money from Harvard and giving it to TRADE SCHOOLS.

WHAT AN AMAZING IDEA!! 👏🏻 https://t.co/uP9N1DU9iE

NEW — President Trump says he is considering sending $3 BILLION to trade schools instead of Harvard https://t.co/rtqvCsApPf

🚨 JUST IN: Trump says he is still waiting for the foreign student lists from Harvard https://t.co/qaglhor9st

Donald Trump is considering TAKING AWAY $3 billion from Harvard and giving it to trade schools.. 

Thoughts?? https://t.co/4cEmcL68RG

BREAKING: President Trump says he’s considering giving $3 billion of Harvard grant money to trade schools all across America

BREAKING - President Trump says he’s considering stripping $3 billion in federal grants from Harvard University and giving the money to trade schools nationwide. https://t.co/tMmYWmTH5o

JUST IN 🔴

Trump: “I am considering taking Three Billion Dollars of Grant Money away from a very antisemitic Harvard, and giving it to TRADE SCHOOLS all across our land.” https://t.co/5mi5vYqMxq

The University of Tokyo could accept international students from Harvard University who have been impacted by Trump's attempts to revoke their student visa status: “We will contribute to ensuring that the learning of young, talented students is not interrupted and can continue.” https://t.co/ev62xpGa9S

Do you fully support President Trump revoking $3 billion from Harvard in federal grant money, and reallocating it to trade schools? https://t.co/ofWGK5F1jr

Trump says he's considering giving $3B of Harvard grant money to trade schools https://t.co/vNqDOqr7aR

Pres. Trump said on Monday morning that he is considering reallocating $3 billion in federal grant money from Harvard University to trade schools. https://t.co/7v0t2DIImA

Trump says he’s considering taking US$3-billion in grants from Harvard, giving them to trade schools https://t.co/SetmNzRq0k

Trump threatens to divert billions in grant dollars away from Harvard University and give those funds to trade schools across the US, escalating his clash with the elite institution https://t.co/EaWVaEeLUl

Pres. Trump on Monday doubled down on his demand for a list of names of international students enrolled at Harvard, yet another escalation in his administration's standoff with the university. https://t.co/ft9nIpR0MZ

The Trump administration has blocked Harvard University from enrolling international students, escalating tensions with the institution by revoking federal funding and targeting its endowment. Harvard, supported by federal judges issuing restraining orders, has sued the administration, arguing the ban violates legal rights and causes irreparable harm.

Trump Blocks Harvard Students

Reuters: U.S. JUDGE BLOCKS TRUMP FROM REVOKING HARVARD UNIVERSITY'S ABILITY TO ENROLL FOREIGN STUDENTS

🇺🇸 | ÚLTIMA HORA — La administración Trump suspende de forma inmediata el permiso de Harvard para inscribir estudiantes internacionales, según reporta The New York Times. https://t.co/W5nK5J90Jg

Harvard University is suing the Trump administration for their ban on enrolling foreign students. (via AP) https://t.co/mFSjhrHIo1

Reporter: Why would you not want the best and the brightest from around the world to come to Harvard?

Trump: I do but a lot of the people need remedial math. How can someone who can’t add get into Harvard and then you see those same people picketing and screaming at the US. We https://t.co/lkdRRd64vY

🚨 #BREAKING: A District judge has BARRED the Trump administration from revoking Harvard’s ability to import foreign jihadis and Chinese spies as “students”

A low level judge is once again pretending like they’re President.

And why the hell do they always look like this?! https://t.co/Sre3sOMz35

BREAKING 🚨

Trump NGELARANG Harvard menerima mahasiswa Internasional!

QUE MICO! Governo Trump é PROCESSADO por Harvard após tentar impedir a matrícula de estudantes estrangeiros na universidade. https://t.co/UhFebhXXTK

President Trump speaks up about Harvard's huge pile of wealth.

"They have $52 billion as an endowment...Harvard's going to have to change its ways." https://t.co/TslPH27lyx

🚨BREAKING: U.S. District Court Judge Allison Burroughs has blocked the Trump Administration from revoking Harvard University's certification to enroll foreign students.

RETWEET to thank Judge Burroughs for standing up for our democracy! https://t.co/kxc8rGtEwo

🚨 BREAKING: Trump advisor Scott Bessent confirmed that he and Trump are actively exploring a plan to tax Harvard’s endowment.

This isn’t economic policy, It’s political retribution dressed up as reform.

Harvard sued Trump. Now Trump wants their money.

This is what https://t.co/QC2jumiiQG

🚨 #BREAKING: The Trump administration has BLOCKED Harvard’s ability to enroll international students

GOOD!

NO MORE importing jihadis or Chinese spies under the guise of “education.”

This is in addition to Trump revoking hundreds of millions in federal funding the woke college https://t.co/JinVFB5zqs

🚨BREAKING: Trump just BLOCKED Harvard's ability to accept international students after revoking hundreds of millions in federal funding from the university. 

No more educating the enemies of America with taxpayer money! 

Another major victory. https://t.co/17rhunzwcl

🚨AGORA: Donald Trump, presidente dos Estados Unidos, proibiu Harvard de ter estudantes estrangeiros.

A universidade afirma que a medida é ilegal e que manterá sua posição de acolher alunos de mais de 140 países. https://t.co/JhZ7sCZ5iL

BREAKING: Judge grants Harvard a temporary restraining order preventing Trump from terminating international student program.

Thank you Judiciary. Keep fighting back. Trump hates the law and constitution. https://t.co/iFp1dBGFOC

A federal judge has blocked the Trump administration from barring the enrollment of international students at Harvard. https://t.co/xW9vbCkhgJ

BREAKING:  U.S. District Judge Jeffrey S. White just blocked Trump from terminating the legal status of international students, including at Harvard, nationwide, as well as arresting and detaining them.

Countdown until MAGA screams "Activist Judge" and "Deep state" starting now! https://t.co/2xYbnRhfJ7

🚨#BREAKING: The Trump administration has just halted Harvard University's ability to enroll international students which has been effective immediately https://t.co/yrSlFRkYz7

BREAKING: A federal judge in Boston blocked the Trump administration’s order banning current and future international students from attending Harvard.

Judge Allison D. Burroughs issued a temporary restraining order, finding it would cause “immediate and irreparable injury” to https://t.co/sppsMvQ2io

The Trump administration has blocked Harvard from enrolling international students amid its legal battle with the university. https://t.co/CebKy7wmtV

Trump just banned Harvard University from enrolling international students as punishment for them standing up to him.

All current international students will be forced to leave. https://t.co/BqMali4gp2

JUST IN - Trump admin halts Harvard University's ability to enroll international students effective immediately — NYT

BREAKING: Trump administration bans Harvard from enrolling international students

BREAKING: Harvard University sues the Trump administration over ban on enrolling foreign students. https://t.co/UDsyYSGt5q

NEW and BREAKING: Another major blow for Harvard -- the Trump administration has essentially revoked Harvard's ability to enroll foreign students by taking away their ability to get visas. w/@MichaelCBender https://t.co/ojKW4gKWLQ

Breaking News: The Trump administration halted Harvard’s ability to enroll international students, a major escalation in its battle with the school. https://t.co/ncsGwrDK0M

BREAKING 🔴🔴

NYT: Trump administration immediately suspends Harvard University’s ability to enroll international students https://t.co/Erx75AcAKe

Harvard sued the Trump administration Friday, alleging that the decision to revoke the school's ability to enroll international students "is a blatant violation of the First Amendment, the Due Process Clause, and the Administrative Procedure Act." https://t.co/QblJPOayTM

BREAKING: The Trump administration on Thursday blocked Harvard from enrolling international students, targeting a key funding source for the university.

This is insane. This will weaken America by pushing out top talent, hurting the economy, and damaging our reputation. https://t.co/z4Li6hmsSI

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country named in President Donald Trump’s December 16, 2025, proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States” is fully removed from the list of countries subject to full or partial entry suspensions by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A country will be considered "removed" if any of the following occur:
- The President or Executive Branch formally revokes or modifies the proclamation to remove the country
- A federal court issues a final ruling or permanent injunction that blocks the restrictions for that country
- Congress passes legislation lifting the restrictions for that country
- A relevant federal agency (e.g., DHS, State Department) issues official guidance or updates visa policy indicating the country is no longer subject to restrictions
- Nationals of the country resume receiving visas under all categories that had been suspended, without case-by-case waivers

The following do not count as a country being removed:
- Temporary restraining orders or preliminary injunctions (unless later made permanent)
- Delays in enforcement, individual exemptions, or case-by-case waivers
- Diplomatic negotiations or public statements about potential future removal without official action
- Partial easing that still imposes core restrictions (e.g., resuming B-1/B-2 visas while immigrant visas remain banned)

Any official executive, legislative, or judicial action that prevents the proclamation from taking effect on January 1, 2026, or that pauses or ends the travel ban or restriction of a specified country will suffice. 

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official government communications.

L'interdiction de voyager de Trump sera-t-elle levée d'ici le 31 janvier ?

On December 16, 2025, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States”, which updated and expanded partial and full suspensions of entry into the U.S. for nationals of various countries (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/restricting-and-limiting-the-entry-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-security-of-the-united-states/). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, signs any bill into law, or if the Trump administration otherwise takes any formal action which is aimed at fully or partially suspending entry into the U.S. for nationals of any specific, additional country between market issuance and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying action must be aimed at restricting or banning entry into the United States for nationals of a particular country or countries. Blanket actions to restrict entry for individuals holding certain visa classes, or other generalized entry restrictions, which do not target a specific country or countries, will not count.

Additional country refers to any country not subject to a full or partial suspension of entry as of the December 16 proclamation.

Any qualifying government action taken within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the policy takes effect. However, announcements of future or planned bans which are not made official through government action will not qualify.

Any action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump suspend l'entrée aux États-Unis pour plus de pays jusqu'au 31 décembre 2026 ?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

On May 28, 2025, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Donald Trump exceeded his authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by imposing a series of broad tariffs. The ruling blocked several major measures, including the “Liberation Day” tariffs—a 10% tariff on all imports and country-specific rates of up to 50%—as well as additional tariffs targeting Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese goods. The Trump administration has filed a single consolidated appeal of this decision, titled V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, both of the following occur:

1. The Trump administration’s appeal in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. United States is denied, in whole or in part

2. U.S. importers receive refunds of at least some tariffs invalidated by the May 28, 2025 ruling, where such refunds occur as a consequence of the denial, in whole or in part, of the Trump administration’s appeal.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Announcements, court orders, or plans to issue refunds will not be sufficient for resolution unless actual refunds are issued within the market timeframe.

For purposes of this market, a “refund” includes direct payments, credits, or offsets issued to importers by U.S. Customs and Border Protection or the U.S. Treasury reflecting repayment of previously collected tariffs.

If the appeal is fully upheld and no refunds are issued, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official government or court information, or a consensus of credible reporting.

La Cour obligera-t-elle Trump à rembourser les droits de douane ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if in President Donald Trump’s December 16, 2025, proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States,” individuals using travel documents issued or endorsed by the Palestinian Authority are fully removed from the list subject to full or partial entry suspensions by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

People travelling on Palestinian Authority-issued documents will be considered "removed" if any of the following occur:
- The President or Executive Branch formally revokes or modifies the proclamation to remove them
- A federal court issues a final ruling or permanent injunction that blocks the restrictions for them
- Congress passes legislation lifting their restrictions
- A relevant federal agency (e.g., DHS, State Department) issues official guidance or updates visa policy indicating they are no longer subject to restrictions
- People traveling on Palestinian Authority-issued documents resume receiving visas under all categories that had been suspended, without case-by-case waivers

The following do not count as the restrictions being removed:
- Temporary restraining orders or preliminary injunctions (unless later made permanent)
- Delays in enforcement, individual exemptions, or case-by-case waivers
- Diplomatic negotiations or public statements about potential future removal without official action
- Partial easing that still imposes core restrictions (e.g., resuming B-1/B-2 visas while immigrant visas remain banned)

Any official executive, legislative, or judicial action that prevents the proclamation at large or all restrictions for individuals using travel documents issued or endorsed by the Palestinian Authority from taking effect on January 1, 2026, or that pauses or ends the travel ban or restrictions will suffice.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and official government communications.

Le nouveau décret de Trump sur l'interdiction de voyager pour les Palestiniens sera-t-il levé d'ici le 31 janvier ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump démissionnera-t-il d'ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump visitera-t-il la Chine d'ici le 30 avril ?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any naturalized US citizen is denaturalized by the United States government by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Denaturalization refers to the legal process through which a naturalized citizen’s US citizenship is revoked by the federal government.

An announcement from relevant federal government sources, including but not limited to US Attorney’s Offices, relevant US district courts, the Department of Justice, or the Department of Homeland Security, within this market’s timeframe that any naturalized citizen has been or definitively will be denaturalized will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the denaturalization goes into effect or any legal challenges the denaturalization may face after announcement. Initiation of denaturalization proceedings, allegations, recommendations, or statements otherwise supporting denaturalization without announcing the denaturalization of a specific person or persons will not alone count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government and federal legal structures; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump denaturalize any citizen by June 30?

On August 18, 2025, President Donald J. Trump announced his commitment to eliminate mail-in voting and voting machines in U.S. elections, ahead of the 2026 midterms.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that inhibits mail-in voting or voting machines from use for the 2026 midterm election by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any executive action or legislation that restricts, limits, or prohibits the use of mail-in voting or voting machines in any way will qualify, even if the action is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Will Trump act to ban mail-in voting or voting machines by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Trump soutiendra-t-il un candidat à la présidence avant 2027 ?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump administration or the U.S. government announces that it is sending, has sent, or will send Tomahawk cruise missiles to Ukraine by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying statement within the specified timeframe will suffice regardless of when the missiles are sent.

For the purposes of this market, official policy announcements from the Trump administration or the U.S. government will qualify. Informal statements, leaks, or speculative remarks will not be sufficient.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the Trump administration, the U.S. government, or the government of Ukraine. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if no direct official statement is available.

Trump enverra-t-il des Tomahawks en Ukraine d'ici le 31 mars ?

During the 2024 FY ICE removed 271,484 non citizens (see: https://www.ice.gov/doclib/eoy/iceAnnualReportFY2024.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) removes 750,000 or more non citizens in the 2025 fiscal year. Otherwise, this market ill resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report. If the FY 2025 ICE Annual Report is not published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be used. 

Trump déportera-t-il 750 000 personnes ou plus en 2025 ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to Jeffrey Epstein between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any release will qualify, including re-releases, partial releases, unsubstantive materials, or documents whose contents were already known from prior reporting.

Qualifying releases must be made by the Executive Branch itself, such as through an official government website, press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions solely to courts, Congress, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible.

The following will not qualify:
-Announcements of releases that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe.
-Releases made exclusively by courts, Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch.
-Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

L'administration Trump publiera-t-elle d'autres dossiers liés à Epstein d'ici le 28 février ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Trump va-t-il soutenir JD Vance pour la présidence avant 2027 ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump gracierait-il Donald Brodie avant 2027 ?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The Supreme Court will be considered to overturn Humphrey's Executor v. United States if they issue a decision in Trump v. Slaughter overruling or substantially limiting Humphrey's Executor v. United States (1935), including ruling that the President may remove FTC commissioners at will.

If the Supreme court ruling in Trump v. Slaughter affirms that for-cause removal protections for FTC commissioners remain constitutional or if the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Trump v. Slaughter is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court issues an official ruling in the case Donald J. Trump, et al., v. V.O.S. Selections, Inc. by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An official ruling on the case is defined as any decision on the merits of the case issued by the Supreme Court, including but not limited to a written opinion, summary disposition, or per curiam opinion.

If the case is dismissed as improvidently granted, dismissed for mootness, vacated and remanded without a decision on the merits, withdrawn or settled, otherwise concluded without a final merits judgment, or there has been no qualifying ruling for this case by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

La Cour suprême statuera-t-elle sur les tarifs de Trump d'ici le 20 février ?

On January 17, Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland, which would begin on February 1 and would remain in effect until a deal is struck for the US to purchase Greenland (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115911344443637897).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any new general tariff or tariffs on imports into the United States from all of the following countries — Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland — goes into effect for any amount of time by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have occurred without being further delayed or suspended.

A new general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a new policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from all of the listed countries goes into effect.

Only tariffs specifically targeting the listed countries or a specific set of countries including all the listed countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S. from any country) will not count toward this market's resolution.

An increase in the rate of pre-existing general tariffs on imports into the US from all of the listed countries will count.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.

Will all of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States issues a decision that reverses, vacates, or otherwise overturns the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit’s August 29, 2025 decision in V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump, in which the Federal Circuit held that the tariffs imposed by Executive Orders 14193, 14194, 14195, 14257, and 14266 exceeded the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) by December 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." 

If the Supreme Court dismisses the case as improvidently granted, denies certiorari, grants/vacates/remands without deciding the merits of IEEPA authorization, affirms by an equally divided Court, or vacates due to mootness, or if the parties settle the case this market will resolve to "No." 

For purposes of this market, the government prevails if the Supreme Court rules on the merits that the tariffs are authorized under IEEPA, or otherwise reverses or vacates the Federal Circuit’s holding that they are unauthorized under IEEPA, regardless of whether the Court remands for further proceedings on issues such as remedy or scope of relief. The government does not prevail if the Supreme Court affirms the Federal Circuit’s decision that the tariffs are unauthorized by IEEPA, even if the Court modifies or vacates portions of the judgment relating only to remedy or injunctive relief.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 


La Cour suprême se prononce en faveur des tarifs imposés par Trump ?

Donald Trump threatened to sue the New York Times over a Times/Siena poll it released which showed Trump’s favorability rating dropping (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115939791935000343)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump files a new lawsuit against The New York Times Company, Siena University, or any of their subsidiaries, executives, employees, or pollsters or files a court document that adds a new legal claim to an existing lawsuit against any of these parties, in connection with New York Times/Siena opinion polling about Trump, by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The lawsuit or addition must be directly related to the New York Times’ polling about Trump to qualify.

An announcement of intent to sue or a legal threat will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution; a lawsuit must actually be filed in court.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the relevant court. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump sue NYT/Siena over polling by Feb 28?

On January 17, Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland, which would begin on February 1 and would remain in effect until a deal is struck for the US to purchase Greenland (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115911344443637897).


This market will resolve to “Yes” if any new general tariff on imports into the United States from the listed country goes into effect for any amount of time by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have occurred without being further delayed or suspended.

A new general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a new policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from the listed country goes into effect.

Only new tariffs specifically targeting the listed country or a specific set of countries including the listed country will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S. from any country) will not count toward this market's resolution.

An increase in the rate of pre-existing general tariffs on imports into the US from the listed country will count.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.

Will Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect for Denmark by Feburary 1?

On January 17, Donald Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland, which would begin on February 1 and would remain in effect until a deal is struck for the US to purchase Greenland (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115911344443637897).

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any new general tariff on imports into the United States from one or more of the following countries — Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, The United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland — goes into effect for any amount of time by February 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purpose of this market, "goes into effect" means the start date for the tariffs must have occurred without being further delayed or suspended.

A new general tariff that includes item-specific exceptions will still qualify, as long as a new policy of a general tariff on imports into the United States from one or more of the listed countries goes into effect.

Only tariffs specifically targeting one or more of the listed countries or a specific set of countries including one or more of the listed countries will qualify. For example, a new global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S. from any country) will not count toward this market's resolution.

An increase in the rate of pre-existing general tariffs on imports into the US from one or more of the listed countries will count.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information may also be used.

Will any of Trump’s Greenland Tariffs go into effect by Feb 1?

An interview of Donald Trump by Joe Kernen is scheduled to air on January 21, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/CNBC/status/2012167755407999076

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or CNBC, or otherwise is not released by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 10+ times during CNBC interview?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Donald Trump visitera-t-il l'Iowa en 2026 ?

An interview of Donald Trump by Katie Pavlich on "Katie Pavlich Tonight" is scheduled to air on January 20, 2026. You can read more about that here: https://x.com/NewsNation/status/2012890752905363662

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during this interview. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

If clips of old interviews or prerecorded videos are aired where Trump is speaking, those clips will count toward this market's resolution.

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this interview is definitively cancelled by Donald Trump or NewsNation, or otherwise is not released by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". If the interview has not aired in its entirety by January 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on what has aired up to that point.

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution. Transcripts will not count.

Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times during NewsNation interview?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Trump Administration submits a 48-hour report consistent with the War Powers Resolution regarding the introduction of U.S. armed forces into hostilities or imminent hostilities against Iran between the date of market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The market will resolve based on the listed date of the report. This market may stay open until 10 days after the listed date (ET) to allow for a qualifying report to be published.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be the White House, the Congressional Record, and the NYU Law War Powers Resolution Reporting Project; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump invoque-t-il les pouvoirs de guerre contre l'Iran d'ici le 31 mars 2026 ?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the autonomous territory of Greenland by March 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Greenland. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump ira-t-il au Groenland d'ici le 31 mars ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump créera-t-il un dividende tarifaire d'ici le 30 juin ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve before his term is up, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Trump essaiera-t-il de renvoyer Powell d'ici le 31 janvier ?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?

Contexte du Marché

Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?

Règles

Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?

Contexte du Marché

Will Trump remove Harvard's Intl Student ban before July?

À propos