Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93% implied probability that Luigi Mangione remains in custody through 2026, anchored by his ongoing pretrial detention without bail amid dual state and federal murder prosecutions for the UnitedHealthcare CEO killing. Recent catalysts include a February ruling dropping federal death penalty charges—leaving life imprisonment on the table—and a state trial date set for June 8, with a key April 1 hearing potentially delaying his federal case to January 2027. Defense motions challenging Miranda rights and warrantless searches persist, but overwhelming evidence like video footage and the shell casings solidifies prosecution momentum. Cultural fervor from online supporters fuels breakout attempt headlines, yet realistic upsets like evidence suppression or a surprise plea deal appear slim against historical high-profile case timelines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93% implied probability that Luigi Mangione remains in custody through 2026, anchored by his ongoing pretrial detention without bail amid dual state and federal murder prosecutions for the UnitedHealthcare CEO killing. Recent catalysts include a February ruling dropping federal death penalty charges—leaving life imprisonment on the table—and a state trial date set for June 8, with a key April 1 hearing potentially delaying his federal case to January 2027. Defense motions challenging Miranda rights and warrantless searches persist, but overwhelming evidence like video footage and the shell casings solidifies prosecution momentum. Cultural fervor from online supporters fuels breakout attempt headlines, yet realistic upsets like evidence suppression or a surprise plea deal appear slim against historical high-profile case timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93% implied probability that Luigi Mangione remains in custody through 2026, anchored by his ongoing pretrial detention without bail amid dual state and federal murder prosecutions for the UnitedHealthcare CEO killing. Recent catalysts include a February ruling dropping federal death penalty charges—leaving life imprisonment on the table—and a state trial date set for June 8, with a key April 1 hearing potentially delaying his federal case to January 2027. Defense motions challenging Miranda rights and warrantless searches persist, but overwhelming evidence like video footage and the shell casings solidifies prosecution momentum. Cultural fervor from online supporters fuels breakout attempt headlines, yet realistic upsets like evidence suppression or a surprise plea deal appear slim against historical high-profile case timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Luigi Mangione is released from custody by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If Mangione is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in him leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".
If Mangione participates in a successful jailbreak or is otherwise liberated from state custody for any length of time, this market will resolve to "Yes".
Transporting Mangione to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 29, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 93% implied probability that Luigi Mangione remains in custody through 2026, anchored by his ongoing pretrial detention without bail amid dual state and federal murder prosecutions for the UnitedHealthcare CEO killing. Recent catalysts include a February ruling dropping federal death penalty charges—leaving life imprisonment on the table—and a state trial date set for June 8, with a key April 1 hearing potentially delaying his federal case to January 2027. Defense motions challenging Miranda rights and warrantless searches persist, but overwhelming evidence like video footage and the shell casings solidifies prosecution momentum. Cultural fervor from online supporters fuels breakout attempt headlines, yet realistic upsets like evidence suppression or a surprise plea deal appear slim against historical high-profile case timelines.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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