Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% on Marine Le Pen overturning her five-year ineligibility ban via Paris Court of Appeal, driven by prosecutors' February 3, 2026, requisitions urging confirmation of the 2025 embezzlement conviction for a "fraudulent system" misusing European Parliament funds on fictitious assistants. The appeal trial concluded February 12 without lifting the ban, with a July 7 ruling pending; absent new evidence, the first-instance findings and lack of provisional execution suspension in requests signal low reversal odds, preserving barriers to her 2027 presidential candidacy unless Cour de cassation intervenes post-appeal. No major developments since trial close reinforce this positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMarine Le Pen gagnera-t-elle son appel à lever l'interdiction d'éligibilité en 2026 ?
Marine Le Pen gagnera-t-elle son appel à lever l'interdiction d'éligibilité en 2026 ?
Oui
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
Oui
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race. The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12. You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% on Marine Le Pen overturning her five-year ineligibility ban via Paris Court of Appeal, driven by prosecutors' February 3, 2026, requisitions urging confirmation of the 2025 embezzlement conviction for a "fraudulent system" misusing European Parliament funds on fictitious assistants. The appeal trial concluded February 12 without lifting the ban, with a July 7 ruling pending; absent new evidence, the first-instance findings and lack of provisional execution suspension in requests signal low reversal odds, preserving barriers to her 2027 presidential candidacy unless Cour de cassation intervenes post-appeal. No major developments since trial close reinforce this positioning.
On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race. The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12. You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 19, 2026, 3:12 PM ET
Volume
$9,058Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 19, 2026, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race. The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12. You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% on Marine Le Pen overturning her five-year ineligibility ban via Paris Court of Appeal, driven by prosecutors' February 3, 2026, requisitions urging confirmation of the 2025 embezzlement conviction for a "fraudulent system" misusing European Parliament funds on fictitious assistants. The appeal trial concluded February 12 without lifting the ban, with a July 7 ruling pending; absent new evidence, the first-instance findings and lack of provisional execution suspension in requests signal low reversal odds, preserving barriers to her 2027 presidential candidacy unless Cour de cassation intervenes post-appeal. No major developments since trial close reinforce this positioning.
On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race. The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12. You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings. Procedural or interim rulings that do not decide the merits of the appeal will not qualify toward resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official rulings from the Paris Court of Appeal (Cour d’appel de Paris); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$9,058Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 19, 2026, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 82.5% on Marine Le Pen overturning her five-year ineligibility ban via Paris Court of Appeal, driven by prosecutors' February 3, 2026, requisitions urging confirmation of the 2025 embezzlement conviction for a "fraudulent system" misusing European Parliament funds on fictitious assistants. The appeal trial concluded February 12 without lifting the ban, with a July 7 ruling pending; absent new evidence, the first-instance findings and lack of provisional execution suspension in requests signal low reversal odds, preserving barriers to her 2027 presidential candidacy unless Cour de cassation intervenes post-appeal. No major developments since trial close reinforce this positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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