Trader consensus gives a 54% implied probability of a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026, reflecting the elevated baseline risk from advanced ages among Justices Thomas (76), Alito (75), Sotomayor (71), and Chief Justice Roberts (69), alongside historical patterns of irregular departures often tied to political transitions. No recent health scares or retirement signals have emerged—all nine justices heard cases in the October 2024 term start, with Thomas missing one day for flu but resuming duties. The closely contested odds balance actuarial odds against robust health records, with the November 2024 presidential election a pivotal catalyst: a Trump win might spur conservative retirements for younger appointees, while a Harris victory could delay liberal exits. Tipping developments include sudden medical events, formal announcements, or post-election confirmation dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
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The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus gives a 54% implied probability of a Supreme Court vacancy in 2026, reflecting the elevated baseline risk from advanced ages among Justices Thomas (76), Alito (75), Sotomayor (71), and Chief Justice Roberts (69), alongside historical patterns of irregular departures often tied to political transitions. No recent health scares or retirement signals have emerged—all nine justices heard cases in the October 2024 term start, with Thomas missing one day for flu but resuming duties. The closely contested odds balance actuarial odds against robust health records, with the November 2024 presidential election a pivotal catalyst: a Trump win might spur conservative retirements for younger appointees, while a Harris victory could delay liberal exits. Tipping developments include sudden medical events, formal announcements, or post-election confirmation dynamics.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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