Traders' 57% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any Canadian province officially scheduling or announcing a secession referendum before 2027, with Quebec remaining the focal point despite stagnant independence support hovering around 35% in recent polls. Premier François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec government prioritizes autonomy within Canada over separation, while Parti Québécois rhetoric has not translated into concrete plans amid their minority status. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act challenges federal overreach but stops short of exit votes, and no other provinces show viable separatist momentum. No major developments in the past 30 days—such as legislative votes or campaign pledges—have shifted dynamics, underscoring constitutional hurdles like the federal Clarity Act requiring a clear majority question. Quebec's next election in 2026 could introduce volatility if sovereigntists surge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$120,117 Vol.
$120,117 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$120,117 Vol.
$120,117 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders' 57% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any Canadian province officially scheduling or announcing a secession referendum before 2027, with Quebec remaining the focal point despite stagnant independence support hovering around 35% in recent polls. Premier François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec government prioritizes autonomy within Canada over separation, while Parti Québécois rhetoric has not translated into concrete plans amid their minority status. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act challenges federal overreach but stops short of exit votes, and no other provinces show viable separatist momentum. No major developments in the past 30 days—such as legislative votes or campaign pledges—have shifted dynamics, underscoring constitutional hurdles like the federal Clarity Act requiring a clear majority question. Quebec's next election in 2026 could introduce volatility if sovereigntists surge.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$120,117Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders' 57% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any Canadian province officially scheduling or announcing a secession referendum before 2027, with Quebec remaining the focal point despite stagnant independence support hovering around 35% in recent polls. Premier François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec government prioritizes autonomy within Canada over separation, while Parti Québécois rhetoric has not translated into concrete plans amid their minority status. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act challenges federal overreach but stops short of exit votes, and no other provinces show viable separatist momentum. No major developments in the past 30 days—such as legislative votes or campaign pledges—have shifted dynamics, underscoring constitutional hurdles like the federal Clarity Act requiring a clear majority question. Quebec's next election in 2026 could introduce volatility if sovereigntists surge.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$120,117Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders' 57% implied probability on "No" reflects the absence of any Canadian province officially scheduling or announcing a secession referendum before 2027, with Quebec remaining the focal point despite stagnant independence support hovering around 35% in recent polls. Premier François Legault's Coalition Avenir Québec government prioritizes autonomy within Canada over separation, while Parti Québécois rhetoric has not translated into concrete plans amid their minority status. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith's Sovereignty Within a United Canada Act challenges federal overreach but stops short of exit votes, and no other provinces show viable separatist momentum. No major developments in the past 30 days—such as legislative votes or campaign pledges—have shifted dynamics, underscoring constitutional hurdles like the federal Clarity Act requiring a clear majority question. Quebec's next election in 2026 could introduce volatility if sovereigntists surge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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