Recent developments in Alberta have shaped trader consensus around the 58% implied probability for a province scheduling an independence referendum before 2027. In May 2026, separatist organizers submitted over 300,000 signatures on a citizen-initiated petition, surpassing the required threshold after Elections Alberta approved the process earlier in the year. Premier Danielle Smith has stated that a verified petition would prompt inclusion of the question on the October 2026 provincial referendum ballot, though First Nations legal challenges citing treaty rights have delayed validation. In Quebec, the Parti Québécois continues to advocate sovereignty options ahead of the fall 2026 election, yet current polling indicates limited support for advancing a new referendum. These provincial-level petition and ballot timelines represent the primary near-term catalysts for the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
$438,831 Vol.
$438,831 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
Oui
$438,831 Vol.
$438,831 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent developments in Alberta have shaped trader consensus around the 58% implied probability for a province scheduling an independence referendum before 2027. In May 2026, separatist organizers submitted over 300,000 signatures on a citizen-initiated petition, surpassing the required threshold after Elections Alberta approved the process earlier in the year. Premier Danielle Smith has stated that a verified petition would prompt inclusion of the question on the October 2026 provincial referendum ballot, though First Nations legal challenges citing treaty rights have delayed validation. In Quebec, the Parti Québécois continues to advocate sovereignty options ahead of the fall 2026 election, yet current polling indicates limited support for advancing a new referendum. These provincial-level petition and ballot timelines represent the primary near-term catalysts for the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$438,831Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent developments in Alberta have shaped trader consensus around the 58% implied probability for a province scheduling an independence referendum before 2027. In May 2026, separatist organizers submitted over 300,000 signatures on a citizen-initiated petition, surpassing the required threshold after Elections Alberta approved the process earlier in the year. Premier Danielle Smith has stated that a verified petition would prompt inclusion of the question on the October 2026 provincial referendum ballot, though First Nations legal challenges citing treaty rights have delayed validation. In Quebec, the Parti Québécois continues to advocate sovereignty options ahead of the fall 2026 election, yet current polling indicates limited support for advancing a new referendum. These provincial-level petition and ballot timelines represent the primary near-term catalysts for the market.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$438,831Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments in Alberta have shaped trader consensus around the 58% implied probability for a province scheduling an independence referendum before 2027. In May 2026, separatist organizers submitted over 300,000 signatures on a citizen-initiated petition, surpassing the required threshold after Elections Alberta approved the process earlier in the year. Premier Danielle Smith has stated that a verified petition would prompt inclusion of the question on the October 2026 provincial referendum ballot, though First Nations legal challenges citing treaty rights have delayed validation. In Quebec, the Parti Québécois continues to advocate sovereignty options ahead of the fall 2026 election, yet current polling indicates limited support for advancing a new referendum. These provincial-level petition and ballot timelines represent the primary near-term catalysts for the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes