Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 96.4% implied probability for Alberta joining the US, driven by entrenched constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which mandates clear majority support, federal negotiations, and approvals from Parliament and other provinces for any secession—let alone subsequent US statehood requiring congressional consent. Recent polls from Abacus Data and Angus Reid in March 2026 show only 25-30% Albertan support for independence as a prerequisite step, with two-thirds opposed, while a First Nations injunction hearing on April 7 blocked separatist petition progress amid treaty rights concerns. Fringe momentum from US official meetings and Trump administration rhetoric has not translated to broader backing from Premier Danielle Smith or federal leaders, underscoring the movement's marginal viability. Shifts could arise from a surprise referendum surge or escalated bilateral tensions, though historical secession precedents like Quebec remain unfulfilled.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourOui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
Oui
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 déc. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 96.4% implied probability for Alberta joining the US, driven by entrenched constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which mandates clear majority support, federal negotiations, and approvals from Parliament and other provinces for any secession—let alone subsequent US statehood requiring congressional consent. Recent polls from Abacus Data and Angus Reid in March 2026 show only 25-30% Albertan support for independence as a prerequisite step, with two-thirds opposed, while a First Nations injunction hearing on April 7 blocked separatist petition progress amid treaty rights concerns. Fringe momentum from US official meetings and Trump administration rhetoric has not translated to broader backing from Premier Danielle Smith or federal leaders, underscoring the movement's marginal viability. Shifts could arise from a surprise referendum surge or escalated bilateral tensions, though historical secession precedents like Quebec remain unfulfilled.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Marché ouvert : Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ET
Volume
$2,056Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 96.4% implied probability for Alberta joining the US, driven by entrenched constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which mandates clear majority support, federal negotiations, and approvals from Parliament and other provinces for any secession—let alone subsequent US statehood requiring congressional consent. Recent polls from Abacus Data and Angus Reid in March 2026 show only 25-30% Albertan support for independence as a prerequisite step, with two-thirds opposed, while a First Nations injunction hearing on April 7 blocked separatist petition progress amid treaty rights concerns. Fringe momentum from US official meetings and Trump administration rhetoric has not translated to broader backing from Premier Danielle Smith or federal leaders, underscoring the movement's marginal viability. Shifts could arise from a surprise referendum surge or escalated bilateral tensions, though historical secession precedents like Quebec remain unfulfilled.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, or if Alberta officially comes under US sovereignty, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Alberta as of February 6, 2026, currently a Canadian province, to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system.
An official announcement made by the United States and Canada that Alberta will come under US sovereignty, within this market's timeframe, will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. a ratified treaty, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere suggestions, negotiations, or posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Canada, and Alberta, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Alberta has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.
Volume
$2,056Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 6, 2026, 5:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 96.4% implied probability for Alberta joining the US, driven by entrenched constitutional barriers under Canada's Clarity Act, which mandates clear majority support, federal negotiations, and approvals from Parliament and other provinces for any secession—let alone subsequent US statehood requiring congressional consent. Recent polls from Abacus Data and Angus Reid in March 2026 show only 25-30% Albertan support for independence as a prerequisite step, with two-thirds opposed, while a First Nations injunction hearing on April 7 blocked separatist petition progress amid treaty rights concerns. Fringe momentum from US official meetings and Trump administration rhetoric has not translated to broader backing from Premier Danielle Smith or federal leaders, underscoring the movement's marginal viability. Shifts could arise from a surprise referendum surge or escalated bilateral tensions, though historical secession precedents like Quebec remain unfulfilled.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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