Canada's federal government has implemented the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which sharply reduces new temporary resident arrivals—including international students and workers—to 385,000, down substantially from prior targets, while stabilizing permanent resident admissions near 380,000. These adjustments aim to lower the temporary resident share of the population below 5 percent by year-end and address housing and infrastructure pressures. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate flat or modestly negative overall population growth in 2026 due to net outflows of non-permanent residents offsetting permanent inflows. Preliminary Statistics Canada data already showed a 0.2 percent decline in late 2025, reinforcing trader assessments that these policy shifts make a net decrease the more probable outcome for the full year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAugmenté
Augmenté
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's federal government has implemented the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, which sharply reduces new temporary resident arrivals—including international students and workers—to 385,000, down substantially from prior targets, while stabilizing permanent resident admissions near 380,000. These adjustments aim to lower the temporary resident share of the population below 5 percent by year-end and address housing and infrastructure pressures. Parliamentary Budget Officer projections indicate flat or modestly negative overall population growth in 2026 due to net outflows of non-permanent residents offsetting permanent inflows. Preliminary Statistics Canada data already showed a 0.2 percent decline in late 2025, reinforcing trader assessments that these policy shifts make a net decrease the more probable outcome for the full year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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