Canada's federal government has tightened immigration controls through its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, slashing new temporary resident arrivals by over 40 percent while holding permanent resident targets steady at 380,000. This adjustment responds to prior rapid growth driven by non-permanent residents and seeks to bring their population share below 5 percent. Parliamentary Budget Officer forecasts show net outflows from temporary programs offsetting permanent inflows, projecting flat overall population change in 2026 after Statistics Canada recorded the first annual decline of 0.2 percent in 2025. These policy measures anchor trader consensus around a down outcome for the year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAugmenté
Augmenté
This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Down" if the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2026 is less than the population of Canada in the 4th quarter of 2025.
If the population in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the population in the 4th quarter of 2026 are exactly equal, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If the relevant quarterly population estimate release is not available by April 30, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
The resolution source for this market will be the quarterly population estimates release for the 4th quarter of 2026 from StatCan (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start).
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced population estimate report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to population estimate report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Canada's federal government has tightened immigration controls through its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan, slashing new temporary resident arrivals by over 40 percent while holding permanent resident targets steady at 380,000. This adjustment responds to prior rapid growth driven by non-permanent residents and seeks to bring their population share below 5 percent. Parliamentary Budget Officer forecasts show net outflows from temporary programs offsetting permanent inflows, projecting flat overall population change in 2026 after Statistics Canada recorded the first annual decline of 0.2 percent in 2025. These policy measures anchor trader consensus around a down outcome for the year.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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