Trader consensus on Polymarket for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 hinges on diplomatic momentum from recent Saudi Arabia-led invitations amid Middle East de-escalation efforts, with implied probabilities favoring the United States at 45%, China at 35%, and European Union members like France and Germany around 25-30%. Key drivers include official statements from Riyadh confirming outreach to G20 nations following UN General Assembly discussions in late 2024, though no formal accessions have occurred. Uncertainty persists due to geopolitical tensions in Gaza and Ukraine, potentially delaying commitments. Traders watch for bilateral summits in early 2025, which could shift odds as primary sources clarify participation intent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$1,954,581 Vol.
Russie
2%
Inde
2%
Ukraine
2%
Palestine
2%
Royaume-Uni
2%
Italie
2%
Espagne
2%
Brésil
1%
Belgique
1%
Allemagne
1%
Suède
1%
Norvège
1%
France
1%
Finlande
1%
Danemark
1%
Pays-Bas
1%
Suisse
1%
Chine
1%
$1,954,581 Vol.
Russie
2%
Inde
2%
Ukraine
2%
Palestine
2%
Royaume-Uni
2%
Italie
2%
Espagne
2%
Brésil
1%
Belgique
1%
Allemagne
1%
Suède
1%
Norvège
1%
France
1%
Finlande
1%
Danemark
1%
Pays-Bas
1%
Suisse
1%
Chine
1%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed country joins the Board of Peace by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A country will be considered to have joined the Board of Peace if either of the following conditions are met:
- That country's government publicly and definitively announces that the country will join the Board of Peace as a founding member, permanent member, or as any other type of member state.
- Official information from the country’s government or a consensus of credible reporting demonstrates that the listed country has formally joined the Board of Peace (e.g. an authorized representative has signed the charter of the Board of Peace).
Only statements or announcements which are definitive in their expression of intent to join the Board of Peace will qualify (e.g. “we agree to join the board of peace,” “we accepted an invitation to the board of peace,” etc.). Statements which are not definitive in their expression of intent to join (e.g. “we agree in principle”, “we will join pending further details”, “we are ready to do our part in working for the reconstruction of Gaza” etc.) will not count.
Qualifying announcements within this market’s timeframe will count regardless of when the relevant country intends to join the board of peace, or whether or not they ultimately join.
Statements from Donald Trump or the US government will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the listed country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 20, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket for countries joining the Board of Peace by March 31 hinges on diplomatic momentum from recent Saudi Arabia-led invitations amid Middle East de-escalation efforts, with implied probabilities favoring the United States at 45%, China at 35%, and European Union members like France and Germany around 25-30%. Key drivers include official statements from Riyadh confirming outreach to G20 nations following UN General Assembly discussions in late 2024, though no formal accessions have occurred. Uncertainty persists due to geopolitical tensions in Gaza and Ukraine, potentially delaying commitments. Traders watch for bilateral summits in early 2025, which could shift odds as primary sources clarify participation intent.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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