Traders assign a 98.5% probability to the “No” outcome for Xi Jinping’s divorce before 2027 because no official statements, state-media reports, or credible diplomatic signals have indicated any marital strain between the Chinese leader and Peng Liyuan. Chinese Communist Party norms tightly shield the personal lives of top officials, and historical precedent shows that senior leaders’ marriages remain stable once publicly acknowledged. The absence of leaks from within the system, combined with Xi’s continued public appearances alongside his wife at state events, reinforces the market’s near-certain consensus. While unforeseen health developments, internal political shocks, or sudden personnel changes could theoretically alter the situation before the 2027 resolution date, no such catalysts have emerged in recent months.