Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 96.9% implied probability for holding the #2 AI model spot on the LMArena text leaderboard (style control on) by March 31, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 standard variant's stable 1500 Elo score in second place behind the company's own Opus 4.6-thinking at 1504 Elo as of March 26. This dominance stems from recent evaluations emphasizing stylistic adherence and response quality in blind pairwise battles, where Anthropic's large language models have consistently outperformed rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (1493 Elo, #3) and xAI's Grok-4.20 beta1 (#4). With just days to resolution, the leaderboard's slow vote accumulation favors inertia, though a surprise model release or voting surge from Google or xAI could challenge this positioning if it closes the seven-point gap to #2.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourAnthropic 96.8%
xAI 1.7%
DeepSeek <1%
OpenAI <1%
$499,265 Vol.
$499,265 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
97%
xAI
2%
DeepSeek
1%
OpenAI
<1%
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Anthropic 96.8%
xAI 1.7%
DeepSeek <1%
OpenAI <1%
$499,265 Vol.
$499,265 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$44,666 Vol.
97%
xAI
$18,514 Vol.
2%
DeepSeek
$89,378 Vol.
1%
OpenAI
$89,504 Vol.
<1%
$57,974 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$54,444 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$22,930 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$110,349 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$11,506 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 96.9% implied probability for holding the #2 AI model spot on the LMArena text leaderboard (style control on) by March 31, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 standard variant's stable 1500 Elo score in second place behind the company's own Opus 4.6-thinking at 1504 Elo as of March 26. This dominance stems from recent evaluations emphasizing stylistic adherence and response quality in blind pairwise battles, where Anthropic's large language models have consistently outperformed rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (1493 Elo, #3) and xAI's Grok-4.20 beta1 (#4). With just days to resolution, the leaderboard's slow vote accumulation favors inertia, though a surprise model release or voting surge from Google or xAI could challenge this positioning if it closes the seven-point gap to #2.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Marché ouvert : Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$499,265Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 96.9% implied probability for holding the #2 AI model spot on the LMArena text leaderboard (style control on) by March 31, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 standard variant's stable 1500 Elo score in second place behind the company's own Opus 4.6-thinking at 1504 Elo as of March 26. This dominance stems from recent evaluations emphasizing stylistic adherence and response quality in blind pairwise battles, where Anthropic's large language models have consistently outperformed rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (1493 Elo, #3) and xAI's Grok-4.20 beta1 (#4). With just days to resolution, the leaderboard's slow vote accumulation favors inertia, though a surprise model release or voting surge from Google or xAI could challenge this positioning if it closes the seven-point gap to #2.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$499,265Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a 96.9% implied probability for holding the #2 AI model spot on the LMArena text leaderboard (style control on) by March 31, 2026, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 standard variant's stable 1500 Elo score in second place behind the company's own Opus 4.6-thinking at 1504 Elo as of March 26. This dominance stems from recent evaluations emphasizing stylistic adherence and response quality in blind pairwise battles, where Anthropic's large language models have consistently outperformed rivals like Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro preview (1493 Elo, #3) and xAI's Grok-4.20 beta1 (#4). With just days to resolution, the leaderboard's slow vote accumulation favors inertia, though a surprise model release or voting surge from Google or xAI could challenge this positioning if it closes the seven-point gap to #2.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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