Trader consensus favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 43.5%, reflecting stalled indirect talks amid the ongoing war, US threats of intensified strikes, and Iranian accusations of invasion plans, with no confirmed summit despite diplomatic posturing. Pakistan leads potential venues at 14% after hosting Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt last week for de-escalation discussions on the Strait of Hormuz and broader conflict, while its foreign minister announced readiness to facilitate US-Iran talks in Islamabad, where a US 15-point peace plan was recently channeled. Oman trails at 12.8% due to its prior mediation role but recent US criticism of its foreign minister, with Turkey at 6.5% following shifted plans from Ankara. Unresolved hostilities and scheduling uncertainties keep probabilities fragmented ahead of any potential breakthrough.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOù aura lieu la prochaine réunion diplomatique américano-iranienne ?
Où aura lieu la prochaine réunion diplomatique américano-iranienne ?
Aucune rencontre d'ici le 30 juin 44%
Pakistan 14%
Oman 12.8%
Turquie 6.7%
$503,109 Vol.
$503,109 Vol.
Aucune rencontre d'ici le 30 juin
44%
Pakistan
14%
Oman
13%
Turquie
7%
Suisse
3%
Égypte
2%
Qatar
2%
Autre - Europe
2%
Autre
1%
Russie
1%
Italie
1%
Irak
1%
Émirats arabes unis
<1%
Autre - Moyen-Orient/Afrique du Nord
<1%
États-Unis
<1%
Iran
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Autriche
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
Aucune rencontre d'ici le 30 juin 44%
Pakistan 14%
Oman 12.8%
Turquie 6.7%
$503,109 Vol.
$503,109 Vol.
Aucune rencontre d'ici le 30 juin
44%
Pakistan
14%
Oman
13%
Turquie
7%
Suisse
3%
Égypte
2%
Qatar
2%
Autre - Europe
2%
Autre
1%
Russie
1%
Italie
1%
Irak
1%
Émirats arabes unis
<1%
Autre - Moyen-Orient/Afrique du Nord
<1%
États-Unis
<1%
Iran
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Autriche
<1%
Kazakhstan
<1%
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person (including indirect meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in the Middle East or North Africa other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Middle East/North Africa”.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any country in Europe other than the listed options, this market will resolve to “Other - Europe”.
For the purposes of this market, additional countries’ regions will be determined based on the US State Department’s regional classifications in the “Countries and Areas List” (https://www.state.gov/countries-and-areas-list). Any country classified as part of “Europe and Eurasia” will be considered to be in Europe. Any country classified as part of “Near East (Middle East and North Africa)” will be considered to be in the Middle East.
If the next diplomatic meeting between government representatives of the United States and Iran takes place in any unlisted country which is not classified in either of the specified regions, this market will resolve to “Other”.
If no qualifying meeting takes place by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Meeting by June 30”.
If a qualifying meeting occurs in more than one country, resolution will be based on where the first qualifying diplomatic session takes place.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 43.5%, reflecting stalled indirect talks amid the ongoing war, US threats of intensified strikes, and Iranian accusations of invasion plans, with no confirmed summit despite diplomatic posturing. Pakistan leads potential venues at 14% after hosting Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt last week for de-escalation discussions on the Strait of Hormuz and broader conflict, while its foreign minister announced readiness to facilitate US-Iran talks in Islamabad, where a US 15-point peace plan was recently channeled. Oman trails at 12.8% due to its prior mediation role but recent US criticism of its foreign minister, with Turkey at 6.5% following shifted plans from Ankara. Unresolved hostilities and scheduling uncertainties keep probabilities fragmented ahead of any potential breakthrough.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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