Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a dominant 75.5% implied probability to WTI crude (CL) settling at $90+ in March, propelled by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions—particularly Israel-Iran hostilities and Red Sea disruptions—infusing a 10-15% risk premium into futures pricing. OPEC+'s extended production cuts through Q1 2025 have squeezed global supply by over 2 million bpd, while EIA reports confirm persistent US inventory drawdowns amid resilient demand from China's stimulus measures and steady US consumption. March futures trade around $88/bbl, reflecting backwardation and bullish contango expectations; key catalysts ahead include next week's OPEC+ monitoring meeting and monthly EIA storage data, with traders eyeing $95 resistance for resolution upside.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour90 $+ 76%
85$-90$ 10%
80 $ - 85 $ 6%
75-80 $ 3.9%
$603,954 Vol.
$603,954 Vol.
<60 $
1%
60 $ - 65 $
1%
65 $ - 70 $
1%
70 $ - 75 $
3%
75-80 $
4%
80 $ - 85 $
6%
85$-90$
10%
90 $+
76%
90 $+ 76%
85$-90$ 10%
80 $ - 85 $ 6%
75-80 $ 3.9%
$603,954 Vol.
$603,954 Vol.
<60 $
1%
60 $ - 65 $
1%
65 $ - 70 $
1%
70 $ - 75 $
3%
75-80 $
4%
80 $ - 85 $
6%
85$-90$
10%
90 $+
76%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Marché ouvert : Mar 3, 2026, 7:42 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a dominant 75.5% implied probability to WTI crude (CL) settling at $90+ in March, propelled by escalating Middle East geopolitical tensions—particularly Israel-Iran hostilities and Red Sea disruptions—infusing a 10-15% risk premium into futures pricing. OPEC+'s extended production cuts through Q1 2025 have squeezed global supply by over 2 million bpd, while EIA reports confirm persistent US inventory drawdowns amid resilient demand from China's stimulus measures and steady US consumption. March futures trade around $88/bbl, reflecting backwardation and bullish contango expectations; key catalysts ahead include next week's OPEC+ monitoring meeting and monthly EIA storage data, with traders eyeing $95 resistance for resolution upside.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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