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Politique·Trump Vs Elon

What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

Market icon
Politique·Trump Vs Elon

What will be in the next reconciliation bill?

$320,821 Vol.

Dec 31, 2025
Polymarket

$320,821 Vol.

Polymarket

EV tax credit cuts

$12,755 Vol.

Yes

End Tax on Tips

$40,108 Vol.

Yes

Reduce tax on Social Security

$234,865 Vol.

No

Debt Ceiling lifted/abolished

$14,254 Vol.

Yes

Extension of income tax cut for High Earners

$7,193 Vol.

Yes

SALT cap increase

$11,647 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal tax credits on Electric Vehicle purchases in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal tax credits on EV purchases remain available for specified categories (e.g. tax credits remain available for purchase of EV vehicles of one type, or for people in a certain age bracket, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal tax credits on electric vehicles. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes on tips earned by workers in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on tips remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax on tips. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal taxes on Social Security benefits in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on Social Security benefits remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal income tax on Social Security benefits. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly lifts or abolishes the debt ceiling in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly extends the current 37% top individual income tax rate set by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly includes an increase or elimination of the cap to the state and local tax deduction on any class of taxpayer earning above $10,000 in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly lifts or abolishes the debt ceiling in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority.

This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Volume
$320,821
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025
Marché ouvert
May 14, 2025, 12:33 PM ET

Resolver

0x6A9D22261...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly lifts or abolishes the debt ceiling in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Résultat proposé: Yes

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal tax credits on Electric Vehicle purchases in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal tax credits on EV purchases remain available for specified categories (e.g. tax credits remain available for purchase of EV vehicles of one type, or for people in a certain age bracket, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal tax credits on electric vehicles. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes on tips earned by workers in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on tips remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax on tips. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly eliminates or cuts federal taxes on Social Security benefits in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax on Social Security benefits remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income or type of worker, etc) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal or reduction of federal income tax on Social Security benefits. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe that includes major federal tax policy changes. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly lifts or abolishes the debt ceiling in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly extends the current 37% top individual income tax rate set by the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a reconciliation bill that explicitly includes an increase or elimination of the cap to the state and local tax deduction on any class of taxpayer earning above $10,000 in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The bill must be explicitly passed using the budget reconciliation process, which allows for expedited consideration in the Senate and requires only a simple majority. This market will resolve based on the first reconciliation bill signed into law by Donald Trump during the market’s timeframe. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« What will be in the next reconciliation bill? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 6 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « EV tax credit cuts » à 100%, suivi de « End Tax on Tips » à 100%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « What will be in the next reconciliation bill? » a généré $320.8K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le May 14, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « What will be in the next reconciliation bill? », parcourez les 6 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « What will be in the next reconciliation bill? » est « EV tax credit cuts » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « End Tax on Tips » à 100%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « What will be in the next reconciliation bill? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.