Record early voting in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary has driven trader consensus to overwhelmingly favor 2.0–2.2 million votes, with over 970,000 GOP early ballots already surpassing 2018 records amid high presidential primary interest between Trump and Haley supporters. Incumbent Ted Cruz's commanding lead—polling above 80% with minimal challengers—limits Senate-specific mobilization, but statewide enthusiasm from downballot contests and voter outreach sustains turnout pace. Historical GOP primary highs around 1.6 million in competitive cycles support this projection, reflecting wisdom-of-crowds pricing. Realistic challenges include adverse Election Day weather on March 5, processing delays, or voter complacency yielding under 2 million total.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourParticipation au premier tour de la primaire du Sénat républicain du Texas
Participation au premier tour de la primaire du Sénat républicain du Texas
2,0–2,2M 100.0%
<2,0M <1%
2,2–2,4 M <1%
2,4–2,6 M <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
<2,0M
Non
2,0–2,2M
Oui
2,2–2,4 M
Non
2,4–2,6 M
Non
2,6–2,8 M
Non
2,8M+
Non
2,0–2,2M 100.0%
<2,0M <1%
2,2–2,4 M <1%
2,4–2,6 M <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 3, 2026
<2,0M
$0 Vol.
Non
2,0–2,2M
$0 Vol.
Oui
2,2–2,4 M
$0 Vol.
Non
2,4–2,6 M
$0 Vol.
Non
2,6–2,8 M
$0 Vol.
Non
2,8M+
$0 Vol.
Non
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Record early voting in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary has driven trader consensus to overwhelmingly favor 2.0–2.2 million votes, with over 970,000 GOP early ballots already surpassing 2018 records amid high presidential primary interest between Trump and Haley supporters. Incumbent Ted Cruz's commanding lead—polling above 80% with minimal challengers—limits Senate-specific mobilization, but statewide enthusiasm from downballot contests and voter outreach sustains turnout pace. Historical GOP primary highs around 1.6 million in competitive cycles support this projection, reflecting wisdom-of-crowds pricing. Realistic challenges include adverse Election Day weather on March 5, processing delays, or voter complacency yielding under 2 million total.
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Marché ouvert : Feb 5, 2026, 7:13 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Mar 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 5, 2026, 7:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Record early voting in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary has driven trader consensus to overwhelmingly favor 2.0–2.2 million votes, with over 970,000 GOP early ballots already surpassing 2018 records amid high presidential primary interest between Trump and Haley supporters. Incumbent Ted Cruz's commanding lead—polling above 80% with minimal challengers—limits Senate-specific mobilization, but statewide enthusiasm from downballot contests and voter outreach sustains turnout pace. Historical GOP primary highs around 1.6 million in competitive cycles support this projection, reflecting wisdom-of-crowds pricing. Realistic challenges include adverse Election Day weather on March 5, processing delays, or voter complacency yielding under 2 million total.
Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the first-round total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary, the Race total Canvass Votes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volume
$0Date de fin
Mar 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 5, 2026, 7:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Résultat proposé: Oui
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Oui
Record early voting in the Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary has driven trader consensus to overwhelmingly favor 2.0–2.2 million votes, with over 970,000 GOP early ballots already surpassing 2018 records amid high presidential primary interest between Trump and Haley supporters. Incumbent Ted Cruz's commanding lead—polling above 80% with minimal challengers—limits Senate-specific mobilization, but statewide enthusiasm from downballot contests and voter outreach sustains turnout pace. Historical GOP primary highs around 1.6 million in competitive cycles support this projection, reflecting wisdom-of-crowds pricing. Realistic challenges include adverse Election Day weather on March 5, processing delays, or voter complacency yielding under 2 million total.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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