Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is tracking for a massive 5-day domestic opening over its April 1 Easter frame, with surging presales reported last week elevating forecasts to $175M-$200M and fueling trader optimism for a year-to-date high. Polymarket's fragmented probabilities—>200M at 28.5% edging 170-180M (19.3%)—mirror strong pre-sales momentum akin to the 2023 original's $204M debut, boosted by the March 9 final trailer and crossover buzz like Fox McCloud, yet tempered by uncertainty in family walkups and minimal competition. Historical IP strength and premium formats position it as a frontrunner, but final turnout will decide if it eclipses precedents.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
"The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office
>200m 29%
170-180m 19.3%
190-200m 17.6%
180-190m 15.7%
$300,932 Vol.
$300,932 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
8%
160-170m
14%
170-180m
19%
180-190m
16%
190-200m
18%
>200m
29%
>200m 29%
170-180m 19.3%
190-200m 17.6%
180-190m 15.7%
$300,932 Vol.
$300,932 Vol.
Apr 6, 2026
<160m
$22,303 Vol.
8%
160-170m
$23,532 Vol.
14%
170-180m
$24,230 Vol.
19%
180-190m
$22,047 Vol.
16%
190-200m
$22,727 Vol.
18%
>200m
$186,093 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is tracking for a massive 5-day domestic opening over its April 1 Easter frame, with surging presales reported last week elevating forecasts to $175M-$200M and fueling trader optimism for a year-to-date high. Polymarket's fragmented probabilities—>200M at 28.5% edging 170-180M (19.3%)—mirror strong pre-sales momentum akin to the 2023 original's $204M debut, boosted by the March 9 final trailer and crossover buzz like Fox McCloud, yet tempered by uncertainty in family walkups and minimal competition. Historical IP strength and premium formats position it as a frontrunner, but final turnout will decide if it eclipses precedents.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Marché ouvert : Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Volume
$300,932Date de fin
Apr 6, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is tracking for a massive 5-day domestic opening over its April 1 Easter frame, with surging presales reported last week elevating forecasts to $175M-$200M and fueling trader optimism for a year-to-date high. Polymarket's fragmented probabilities—>200M at 28.5% edging 170-180M (19.3%)—mirror strong pre-sales momentum akin to the 2023 original's $204M debut, boosted by the March 9 final trailer and crossover buzz like Fox McCloud, yet tempered by uncertainty in family walkups and minimal competition. Historical IP strength and premium formats position it as a frontrunner, but final turnout will decide if it eclipses precedents.
This market will resolve according to how much "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The "Daily" figures found on the “Domestic Daily” tab on this movie's Box Office Mojo (https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt28650488/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 5-day opening weekend (April 1 - April 5) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the BoxOfficeMojo figures provided under Domestic Daily performance for the 5-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$300,932Date de fin
Apr 6, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 16, 2026, 5:09 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.the-numbers.com/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Illumination and Nintendo's The Super Mario Galaxy Movie is tracking for a massive 5-day domestic opening over its April 1 Easter frame, with surging presales reported last week elevating forecasts to $175M-$200M and fueling trader optimism for a year-to-date high. Polymarket's fragmented probabilities—>200M at 28.5% edging 170-180M (19.3%)—mirror strong pre-sales momentum akin to the 2023 original's $204M debut, boosted by the March 9 final trailer and crossover buzz like Fox McCloud, yet tempered by uncertainty in family walkups and minimal competition. Historical IP strength and premium formats position it as a frontrunner, but final turnout will decide if it eclipses precedents.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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