Russia's nuclear posture remains shaped by ongoing tensions with the United States and NATO over the Ukraine conflict, with recent strategic force drills—including ICBM launches from Plesetsk and submarines plus bomber sorties—simulating authorization procedures without any confirmed nuclear detonations. Moscow has repeatedly stated it will maintain its testing moratorium under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty unless Washington resumes explosive tests first, a position reinforced after U.S. statements on potential resumption. These missile and command exercises, alongside nuclear accident response drills, allow signaling without crossing the threshold of a live nuclear chain reaction. Prediction market pricing reflects this restraint, as traders assign low implied probabilities to an actual test by year-end or early 2027 deadlines given the diplomatic and strategic costs involved.