Recent Siberian drills by Russian nuclear missile forces on April 2, involving Yars intercontinental ballistic missile maneuvers and camouflage tactics, highlight combat readiness amid Ukraine war escalation and NATO tensions but involve no launches or detonation preparations. The New START treaty's February 5 expiration has eliminated strategic nuclear limits, prompting Russia to plan 2026 ICBM flight tests for Topol-M replacement, though these are non-nuclear launches without chain-reaction explosions. No verified activity at Novaya Zemlya test site or official test announcements persists, reinforcing trader consensus of low implied probabilities—even by December 31—due to de facto CTBT moratorium norms, escalation risks, and absence of concrete triggers despite revoked ratification. Upcoming missile trials could signal modernization but not full tests.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$1,325,567 Vol.
30 juin 2026
30 juin 2026
3%
September 30, 2026
9%
31 décembre 2026
12%
$1,325,567 Vol.
30 juin 2026
$346 Vol.
3%
September 30, 2026
$146 Vol.
9%
31 décembre 2026
$501 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent Siberian drills by Russian nuclear missile forces on April 2, involving Yars intercontinental ballistic missile maneuvers and camouflage tactics, highlight combat readiness amid Ukraine war escalation and NATO tensions but involve no launches or detonation preparations. The New START treaty's February 5 expiration has eliminated strategic nuclear limits, prompting Russia to plan 2026 ICBM flight tests for Topol-M replacement, though these are non-nuclear launches without chain-reaction explosions. No verified activity at Novaya Zemlya test site or official test announcements persists, reinforcing trader consensus of low implied probabilities—even by December 31—due to de facto CTBT moratorium norms, escalation risks, and absence of concrete triggers despite revoked ratification. Upcoming missile trials could signal modernization but not full tests.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Volume
$1,325,567Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent Siberian drills by Russian nuclear missile forces on April 2, involving Yars intercontinental ballistic missile maneuvers and camouflage tactics, highlight combat readiness amid Ukraine war escalation and NATO tensions but involve no launches or detonation preparations. The New START treaty's February 5 expiration has eliminated strategic nuclear limits, prompting Russia to plan 2026 ICBM flight tests for Topol-M replacement, though these are non-nuclear launches without chain-reaction explosions. No verified activity at Novaya Zemlya test site or official test announcements persists, reinforcing trader consensus of low implied probabilities—even by December 31—due to de facto CTBT moratorium norms, escalation risks, and absence of concrete triggers despite revoked ratification. Upcoming missile trials could signal modernization but not full tests.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,325,567Date de fin
31 mars 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Siberian drills by Russian nuclear missile forces on April 2, involving Yars intercontinental ballistic missile maneuvers and camouflage tactics, highlight combat readiness amid Ukraine war escalation and NATO tensions but involve no launches or detonation preparations. The New START treaty's February 5 expiration has eliminated strategic nuclear limits, prompting Russia to plan 2026 ICBM flight tests for Topol-M replacement, though these are non-nuclear launches without chain-reaction explosions. No verified activity at Novaya Zemlya test site or official test announcements persists, reinforcing trader consensus of low implied probabilities—even by December 31—due to de facto CTBT moratorium norms, escalation risks, and absence of concrete triggers despite revoked ratification. Upcoming missile trials could signal modernization but not full tests.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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