Diplomatic efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled amid persistent disagreements over territorial control, Ukrainian neutrality, security guarantees, and NATO membership. US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva earlier in 2026 produced limited progress on monitoring mechanisms but no political breakthrough, while a brief US-brokered Victory Day pause in May collapsed amid mutual violation claims and subsequent Russian strikes. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 2026 call for direct leader-level talks with Vladimir Putin, supported by the UK, France, and Germany, was rejected by Moscow as premature without prior concessions. Russian forces continue incremental advances at high cost, and traders assess that entrenched positions and battlefield dynamics reduce the near-term likelihood of a mutually agreed general ceasefire.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAccord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ?
Accord de cessez-le-feu Russie x Ukraine d'ici le... ?
$3,842,696 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
30 juin
6%
31 octobre
35%
31 décembre
48%
$3,842,696 Vol.
30 juin
$953,878 Vol.
6%
31 octobre
$264,448 Vol.
35%
31 décembre
$1,807,149 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled amid persistent disagreements over territorial control, Ukrainian neutrality, security guarantees, and NATO membership. US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva earlier in 2026 produced limited progress on monitoring mechanisms but no political breakthrough, while a brief US-brokered Victory Day pause in May collapsed amid mutual violation claims and subsequent Russian strikes. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 2026 call for direct leader-level talks with Vladimir Putin, supported by the UK, France, and Germany, was rejected by Moscow as premature without prior concessions. Russian forces continue incremental advances at high cost, and traders assess that entrenched positions and battlefield dynamics reduce the near-term likelihood of a mutually agreed general ceasefire.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Volume
$3,842,696Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled amid persistent disagreements over territorial control, Ukrainian neutrality, security guarantees, and NATO membership. US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva earlier in 2026 produced limited progress on monitoring mechanisms but no political breakthrough, while a brief US-brokered Victory Day pause in May collapsed amid mutual violation claims and subsequent Russian strikes. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 2026 call for direct leader-level talks with Vladimir Putin, supported by the UK, France, and Germany, was rejected by Moscow as premature without prior concessions. Russian forces continue incremental advances at high cost, and traders assess that entrenched positions and battlefield dynamics reduce the near-term likelihood of a mutually agreed general ceasefire.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$3,842,696Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic efforts to secure a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire remain stalled amid persistent disagreements over territorial control, Ukrainian neutrality, security guarantees, and NATO membership. US-mediated trilateral talks in Geneva earlier in 2026 produced limited progress on monitoring mechanisms but no political breakthrough, while a brief US-brokered Victory Day pause in May collapsed amid mutual violation claims and subsequent Russian strikes. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 2026 call for direct leader-level talks with Vladimir Putin, supported by the UK, France, and Germany, was rejected by Moscow as premature without prior concessions. Russian forces continue incremental advances at high cost, and traders assess that entrenched positions and battlefield dynamics reduce the near-term likelihood of a mutually agreed general ceasefire.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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