Republican traders price a tight cluster around 47-49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterms, down from the current 53-47 GOP majority, as historical midterm penalties for the president's party offset a favorable map with 22 mostly safe Republican-held seats up alongside 13 Democratic ones. Recent generic ballot polls, including Rasmussen's March data showing a narrowing but persistent Democratic edge amid inflation concerns, have fueled optimism for Democratic pickups in battlegrounds like Georgia (Ossoff), Michigan (open Peters), and New Hampshire (open Shaheen). Cook Political's January ratings flag 9 competitive races, while heated GOP primaries—such as Texas' impending Cornyn-Paxton runoff, where President Trump signals an imminent endorsement—inject base turnout risks. Economic trends, primary outcomes, and fresh polling could widen separation in toss-ups like Maine (Collins) and North Carolina (open Tillis).
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour51 seats
≤47 26%
49 22%
48 14%
50 13%
$2,045,028 Vol.
$2,045,028 Vol.
≤47
26%
48
14%
49
22%
50
13%
51
8%
52
7%
53
7%
54
3%
55
2%
56
1%
57+
1%
≤47 26%
49 22%
48 14%
50 13%
$2,045,028 Vol.
$2,045,028 Vol.
≤47
$27,278 Vol.
26%
48
$14,751 Vol.
14%
49
$10,676 Vol.
22%
50
$59,684 Vol.
13%
51
$154,376 Vol.
8%
52
$502,613 Vol.
7%
53
$10,291 Vol.
7%
54
$706,250 Vol.
3%
55
$391,127 Vol.
2%
56
$138,729 Vol.
1%
57+
$29,253 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republican traders price a tight cluster around 47-49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterms, down from the current 53-47 GOP majority, as historical midterm penalties for the president's party offset a favorable map with 22 mostly safe Republican-held seats up alongside 13 Democratic ones. Recent generic ballot polls, including Rasmussen's March data showing a narrowing but persistent Democratic edge amid inflation concerns, have fueled optimism for Democratic pickups in battlegrounds like Georgia (Ossoff), Michigan (open Peters), and New Hampshire (open Shaheen). Cook Political's January ratings flag 9 competitive races, while heated GOP primaries—such as Texas' impending Cornyn-Paxton runoff, where President Trump signals an imminent endorsement—inject base turnout risks. Economic trends, primary outcomes, and fresh polling could widen separation in toss-ups like Maine (Collins) and North Carolina (open Tillis).
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$2,045,028Marché ouvert
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Republican traders price a tight cluster around 47-49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterms, down from the current 53-47 GOP majority, as historical midterm penalties for the president's party offset a favorable map with 22 mostly safe Republican-held seats up alongside 13 Democratic ones. Recent generic ballot polls, including Rasmussen's March data showing a narrowing but persistent Democratic edge amid inflation concerns, have fueled optimism for Democratic pickups in battlegrounds like Georgia (Ossoff), Michigan (open Peters), and New Hampshire (open Shaheen). Cook Political's January ratings flag 9 competitive races, while heated GOP primaries—such as Texas' impending Cornyn-Paxton runoff, where President Trump signals an imminent endorsement—inject base turnout risks. Economic trends, primary outcomes, and fresh polling could widen separation in toss-ups like Maine (Collins) and North Carolina (open Tillis).
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$2,045,028Marché ouvert
Dec 18, 2025, 8:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican traders price a tight cluster around 47-49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterms, down from the current 53-47 GOP majority, as historical midterm penalties for the president's party offset a favorable map with 22 mostly safe Republican-held seats up alongside 13 Democratic ones. Recent generic ballot polls, including Rasmussen's March data showing a narrowing but persistent Democratic edge amid inflation concerns, have fueled optimism for Democratic pickups in battlegrounds like Georgia (Ossoff), Michigan (open Peters), and New Hampshire (open Shaheen). Cook Political's January ratings flag 9 competitive races, while heated GOP primaries—such as Texas' impending Cornyn-Paxton runoff, where President Trump signals an imminent endorsement—inject base turnout risks. Economic trends, primary outcomes, and fresh polling could widen separation in toss-ups like Maine (Collins) and North Carolina (open Tillis).
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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