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Precipitation in London in March?

Market icon

Precipitation in London in March?

Mar 31

Apr 30

Mar 31

Apr 30

20-30mm 62.3%

30-40mm 20%

40-50mm 10%

50-60mm 9.1%

Polymarket
NEW

20-30mm 62.3%

30-40mm 20%

40-50mm 10%

50-60mm 9.1%

Polymarket
NEW

<20mm

$3,890 Vol.

9%

20-30mm

$723 Vol.

56%

30-40mm

$399 Vol.

20%

40-50mm

$378 Vol.

10%

50-60mm

$372 Vol.

12%

60-70mm

$439 Vol.

4%

70mm+

$956 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in March, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for March 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of March 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. If relevant data is not released by May 7, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent Met Office seasonal outlooks signal below-average precipitation for London in March, driven by persistent high-pressure dominance over southern England and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation phase limiting Atlantic moisture influx, positioning the 20-30mm bin at 56.3% market-implied probability as trader consensus. Ensemble forecasts from UKMO and ECMWF models show rainfall totals clustering 15-35mm, consistent with January-February's drier-than-normal trends (London Heathrow ~20% below 1991-2020 averages) and historical dry March analogs under similar blocking patterns. Uncertainty persists from potential jet stream shifts; the next three-week outlook, expected mid-February, could adjust guidance amid inherent model spread for spring transitions.

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in March, 2026, according to the Met Office.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for March 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of March 2026 is released.

If the relevant data is not available by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. If relevant data is not released by May 7, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$7,157
Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026
Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 1:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in mm at Heathrow (London Airport) in March, 2026, according to the Met Office. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for March 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of March 2026 is released. If the relevant data is not available by May 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution. If relevant data is not released by May 7, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent Met Office seasonal outlooks signal below-average precipitation for London in March, driven by persistent high-pressure dominance over southern England and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation phase limiting Atlantic moisture influx, positioning the 20-30mm bin at 56.3% market-implied probability as trader consensus. Ensemble forecasts from UKMO and ECMWF models show rainfall totals clustering 15-35mm, consistent with January-February's drier-than-normal trends (London Heathrow ~20% below 1991-2020 averages) and historical dry March analogs under similar blocking patterns. Uncertainty persists from potential jet stream shifts; the next three-week outlook, expected mid-February, could adjust guidance amid inherent model spread for spring transitions.

Recent Met Office seasonal outlooks signal below-average precipitation for London in March, driven by persistent high-pressure dominance over southern England and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation phase limiting Atlantic moisture influx, positioning the 20-30mm bin at 56.3% market-implied probability as trader consensus. Ensemble forecasts from UKMO and ECMWF models show rainfall totals clustering 15-35mm, consistent with January-February's drier-than-normal trends (London Heathrow ~20% below 1991-2020 averages) and historical dry March analogs under similar blocking patterns. Uncertainty persists from potential jet stream shifts; the next three-week outlook, expected mid-February, could adjust guidance amid inherent model spread for spring transitions.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Precipitation in London in March? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 7 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 20-30mm » à 56%, suivi de « 30-40mm » à 20%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 56¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 56% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Precipitation in London in March? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Mar 13, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Precipitation in London in March? », parcourez les 7 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Precipitation in London in March? » est « 20-30mm » à 56%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 56% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 30-40mm » à 20%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Precipitation in London in March? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.