"Les chances que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février sont de plus de 50 % d'ici le 13 février ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Probabilité que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février supérieure à 50% d'ici le 13 février ?" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Les chances que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février sont de plus de 50 % d'ici le 13 février ?" has generated $156.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 6, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Les chances que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février sont de plus de 50 % d'ici le 13 février ?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Les chances que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février sont de plus de 50 % d'ici le 13 février ?" is "Probabilité que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février supérieure à 50% d'ici le 13 février ?" at just 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Les chances que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février sont de plus de 50 % d'ici le 13 février ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Les chances que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février sont de plus de 50 % d'ici le 13 février ?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $156.5K traded on “Les chances que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février sont de plus de 50 % d'ici le 13 février ?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket's prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Les chances que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février sont de plus de 50 % d'ici le 13 février ?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 0¢ for "Probabilité que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février supérieure à 50% d'ici le 13 février ?" in the "Les chances que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février sont de plus de 50 % d'ici le 13 février ?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 0% chance that "Probabilité que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février supérieure à 50% d'ici le 13 février ?" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 0¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 100¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Les chances que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février sont de plus de 50 % d'ici le 13 février ?" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.

The "Les chances que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février sont de plus de 50 % d'ici le 13 février ?" market has a growing discussion of 4 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Les chances que les États-Unis frappent l'Iran en février sont de plus de 50 % d'ici le 13 février ?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.