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Géopolitique·Ukraine

Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 on Friday?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Ukraine

Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 on Friday?

Ended: déc. 12, 2025

Ended: déc. 12, 2025

$42,815 Vol.

12 déc. 2025
Polymarket

$42,815 Vol.

Polymarket

>30%

$24,203 Vol.

No

>25%

$18,612 Vol.

No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' (https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026?) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 4-hour period between 2:00 PM and 5:59 PM ET on December 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-on-friday-over-30 or through the “Resolution” tab on with the time set to look at a specific four hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.comThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' (https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026?) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 4-hour period between 2:00 PM and 5:59 PM ET on December 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-on-friday-over-25 or through the “Resolution” tab on with the time set to look at a specific four hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' (https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026?) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 4-hour period between 2:00 PM and 5:59 PM ET on December 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-on-friday-over-30 or through the “Resolution” tab on with the time set to look at a specific four hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com
Volume
$42,815
Date de fin
12 déc. 2025
Marché ouvert
Dec 5, 2025, 7:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' (https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026?) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 4-hour period between 2:00 PM and 5:59 PM ET on December 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-on-friday-over-30 or through the “Resolution” tab on with the time set to look at a specific four hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com

Résultat proposé: No

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' (https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026?) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 4-hour period between 2:00 PM and 5:59 PM ET on December 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-on-friday-over-30 or through the “Resolution” tab on with the time set to look at a specific four hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.comThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' (https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026?) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 4-hour period between 2:00 PM and 5:59 PM ET on December 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-on-friday-over-25 or through the “Resolution” tab on with the time set to look at a specific four hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' (https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026?) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 4-hour period between 2:00 PM and 5:59 PM ET on December 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No".

If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome.

The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-on-friday-over-30 or through the “Resolution” tab on with the time set to look at a specific four hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data.

Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com
Volume
$42,815
Date de fin
12 déc. 2025
Marché ouvert
Dec 5, 2025, 7:05 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the “Yes” option for the market 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' (https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by-march-31-2026?) is priced over the listed value for a majority of minutes during the 4-hour period between 2:00 PM and 5:59 PM ET on December 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A tie in the number of minutes will resolve to "No". If the underlying market resolves prior to this market, this market will immediately resolve in accordance with the underlying market’s final outcome. The resolution source will be the underlying minute-level price data for the 'Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?' market, which can be viewed using the bar chart on https://derivative.polymarket.com/index/odds-of-russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-on-friday-over-30 or through the “Resolution” tab on with the time set to look at a specific four hour window. This will display the 4-hour scoring window and the underlying minute-level comparisons. Both interfaces display the same underlying data. Note: This market will resolve according to the price scoring methodology of derivative.polymarket.com

Résultat proposé: No

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: No

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 on Friday? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « >30% » à 0%, suivi de « >25% » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 0¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 0% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 on Friday? » a généré $42.8K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Dec 6, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 on Friday? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 on Friday? » est « >30% » à seulement 0%, avec « >25% » juste derrière à 0%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31 on Friday? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.