Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a Democratic victory in the 2026 New York gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched partisan advantages including a roughly 2-to-1 Democratic voter registration edge, overwhelming support in New York City and suburbs, and no Republican winner since George Pataki left office in 2006. Incumbent Kathy Hochul strengthened her frontrunner position through recent state budget passage amid fiscal pressures and migrant policy adjustments, while early polls show her leading potential GOP challengers by double digits despite her narrow 2022 win. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days. Challenges could arise from a high-profile Republican like 2022 nominee Lee Zeldin mounting a rematch, Democratic primary turmoil weakening the nominee, or crime/economy issues sparking a national GOP wave—though historical base rates favor Democrats ahead of the June 2026 primaries and November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de New York
Vainqueur de l'élection du gouverneur de New York
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Démocrate
92%
Républicain
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Démocrate
$0 Vol.
92%
Républicain
$0 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a Democratic victory in the 2026 New York gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched partisan advantages including a roughly 2-to-1 Democratic voter registration edge, overwhelming support in New York City and suburbs, and no Republican winner since George Pataki left office in 2006. Incumbent Kathy Hochul strengthened her frontrunner position through recent state budget passage amid fiscal pressures and migrant policy adjustments, while early polls show her leading potential GOP challengers by double digits despite her narrow 2022 win. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days. Challenges could arise from a high-profile Republican like 2022 nominee Lee Zeldin mounting a rematch, Democratic primary turmoil weakening the nominee, or crime/economy issues sparking a national GOP wave—though historical base rates favor Democrats ahead of the June 2026 primaries and November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a Democratic victory in the 2026 New York gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched partisan advantages including a roughly 2-to-1 Democratic voter registration edge, overwhelming support in New York City and suburbs, and no Republican winner since George Pataki left office in 2006. Incumbent Kathy Hochul strengthened her frontrunner position through recent state budget passage amid fiscal pressures and migrant policy adjustments, while early polls show her leading potential GOP challengers by double digits despite her narrow 2022 win. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days. Challenges could arise from a high-profile Republican like 2022 nominee Lee Zeldin mounting a rematch, Democratic primary turmoil weakening the nominee, or crime/economy issues sparking a national GOP wave—though historical base rates favor Democrats ahead of the June 2026 primaries and November general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 New York gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:45 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a Democratic victory in the 2026 New York gubernatorial election, reflecting the state's entrenched partisan advantages including a roughly 2-to-1 Democratic voter registration edge, overwhelming support in New York City and suburbs, and no Republican winner since George Pataki left office in 2006. Incumbent Kathy Hochul strengthened her frontrunner position through recent state budget passage amid fiscal pressures and migrant policy adjustments, while early polls show her leading potential GOP challengers by double digits despite her narrow 2022 win. No major developments have shifted dynamics in the past 30 days. Challenges could arise from a high-profile Republican like 2022 nominee Lee Zeldin mounting a rematch, Democratic primary turmoil weakening the nominee, or crime/economy issues sparking a national GOP wave—though historical base rates favor Democrats ahead of the June 2026 primaries and November general election.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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