Kentucky's entrenched Republican dominance in U.S. Senate races—no Democratic victory since 1992—and strong GOP performance in recent presidential elections (Trump +30 points in 2024) underpin the 90.5% trader consensus for a Republican winner on November 3. Mitch McConnell's retirement opened the seat, fueling a competitive May 19 GOP primary among Rep. Andy Barr, former AG Daniel Cameron, and Nate Morris, where February Emerson and Quantus polls show a tight three-way split with Barr slightly ahead. Hypothetical general matchups indicate GOP leads of 1-16 points over Democrats like Charles Booker. Mid-March candidate debates reinforced party cohesion without major shifts. Upsets could arise from a divisive primary, nominee scandal, health issues, or midterm national headwinds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections sénatoriales du Kentucky
Vainqueur des élections sénatoriales du Kentucky
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Républicain
91%
Démocrate
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Républicain
$1,271 Vol.
91%
Démocrate
$0 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Kentucky's entrenched Republican dominance in U.S. Senate races—no Democratic victory since 1992—and strong GOP performance in recent presidential elections (Trump +30 points in 2024) underpin the 90.5% trader consensus for a Republican winner on November 3. Mitch McConnell's retirement opened the seat, fueling a competitive May 19 GOP primary among Rep. Andy Barr, former AG Daniel Cameron, and Nate Morris, where February Emerson and Quantus polls show a tight three-way split with Barr slightly ahead. Hypothetical general matchups indicate GOP leads of 1-16 points over Democrats like Charles Booker. Mid-March candidate debates reinforced party cohesion without major shifts. Upsets could arise from a divisive primary, nominee scandal, health issues, or midterm national headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$1,271Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Kentucky's entrenched Republican dominance in U.S. Senate races—no Democratic victory since 1992—and strong GOP performance in recent presidential elections (Trump +30 points in 2024) underpin the 90.5% trader consensus for a Republican winner on November 3. Mitch McConnell's retirement opened the seat, fueling a competitive May 19 GOP primary among Rep. Andy Barr, former AG Daniel Cameron, and Nate Morris, where February Emerson and Quantus polls show a tight three-way split with Barr slightly ahead. Hypothetical general matchups indicate GOP leads of 1-16 points over Democrats like Charles Booker. Mid-March candidate debates reinforced party cohesion without major shifts. Upsets could arise from a divisive primary, nominee scandal, health issues, or midterm national headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kentucky U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$1,271Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Kentucky's entrenched Republican dominance in U.S. Senate races—no Democratic victory since 1992—and strong GOP performance in recent presidential elections (Trump +30 points in 2024) underpin the 90.5% trader consensus for a Republican winner on November 3. Mitch McConnell's retirement opened the seat, fueling a competitive May 19 GOP primary among Rep. Andy Barr, former AG Daniel Cameron, and Nate Morris, where February Emerson and Quantus polls show a tight three-way split with Barr slightly ahead. Hypothetical general matchups indicate GOP leads of 1-16 points over Democrats like Charles Booker. Mid-March candidate debates reinforced party cohesion without major shifts. Upsets could arise from a divisive primary, nominee scandal, health issues, or midterm national headwinds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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