Traders heavily favor 140-179 SpaceX launches in 2026 (62.6% combined probability), with 160-179 leading at 33.5%, propelled by Falcon 9's record 2024 cadence exceeding 130 flights and Starlink's escalating satellite deployment needs—over 6,000 birds already orbiting, demanding sustained high-frequency launches for global coverage. Starship's iterative testing, including sixth flight's soft splashdown and booster catch trials, hints at rapid reusability scaling, potentially unlocking 100+ annual missions and elevating 180+ odds (33.8% total) if propellant loading and heat shield durability advance per FAA milestones. Pad throughput limits at Cape Canaveral and Boca Chica, plus regulatory reviews, cap lower bins, as historical reusability data shows 90%+ Falcon success rates enabling but not guaranteeing exponential growth.