Market icon

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

Market icon

How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?

3 (75 bps) 100.0%

0 <1%

1 (25 bps) <1%

2 (50 bps) <1%

Polymarket

$31,441,120 Vol.

3 (75 bps) 100.0%

0 <1%

1 (25 bps) <1%

2 (50 bps) <1%

Polymarket

$31,441,120 Vol.

0

$3,257,923 Vol.

No

1 (25 bps)

$2,906,249 Vol.

No

2 (50 bps)

$3,706,364 Vol.

No

3 (75 bps)

$3,568,731 Vol.

Yes

4 (100 bps)

$3,089,648 Vol.

No

5 (125 bps)

$2,273,086 Vol.

No

6 (150 bps)

$2,623,047 Vol.

No

7 (175 bps)

$6,045,993 Vol.

No

8 or more (200+ bps)

$3,970,079 Vol.

No

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there no rate cuts by the Fed's December meeting (including the Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been no rate cuts by then.

If there is a rate cut at any time within 2025, before the statement following the December FOMC meeting is released, this market may immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Volume
$31,441,120
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025
Marché ouvert
Dec 29, 2024, 5:50 PM ET
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there no rate cuts by the Fed's December meeting (including the Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been no rate cuts by then. If there is a rate cut at any time within 2025, before the statement following the December FOMC meeting is released, this market may immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Résultat proposé: No

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: No

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Frequently Asked Questions

"How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "3 (75 bps)" at 100%, followed by "0" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?" has generated $31.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 29, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?" is "3 (75 bps)" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "0" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many Fed rate cuts in 2025?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.