Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 38%, reflecting the current tally of 21 announced per Ballotpedia trackers amid a record early wave of retirement announcements that ties for the highest in a century. This positioning stems from sustained departures among long-serving Democrats like Pelosi, Hoyer, Nadler, and Schakowsky, driven by age, district dynamics, and congressional dysfunction, with no new Democratic announcements in the past month but ongoing GOP exits—like Rep. Sam Graves last week—signaling broader pressures. Additional retirements are anticipated ahead of filing deadlines and primaries, as vulnerable incumbents assess midterm risks in battleground districts, though fewer Democrats hold toss-up seats compared to Republicans.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour24–27 25%
28–31 20%
32–35 19.6%
40+ 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<20
3%
20–23
8%
24–27
34%
28–31
16%
32–35
20%
36–39
6%
40+
6%
24–27 25%
28–31 20%
32–35 19.6%
40+ 11.1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$0 Vol.
3%
20–23
$3,774 Vol.
8%
24–27
$3,153 Vol.
34%
28–31
$0 Vol.
16%
32–35
$0 Vol.
20%
36–39
$0 Vol.
6%
40+
$0 Vol.
6%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 38%, reflecting the current tally of 21 announced per Ballotpedia trackers amid a record early wave of retirement announcements that ties for the highest in a century. This positioning stems from sustained departures among long-serving Democrats like Pelosi, Hoyer, Nadler, and Schakowsky, driven by age, district dynamics, and congressional dysfunction, with no new Democratic announcements in the past month but ongoing GOP exits—like Rep. Sam Graves last week—signaling broader pressures. Additional retirements are anticipated ahead of filing deadlines and primaries, as vulnerable incumbents assess midterm risks in battleground districts, though fewer Democrats hold toss-up seats compared to Republicans.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$6,927Date de fin
Aug 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 38%, reflecting the current tally of 21 announced per Ballotpedia trackers amid a record early wave of retirement announcements that ties for the highest in a century. This positioning stems from sustained departures among long-serving Democrats like Pelosi, Hoyer, Nadler, and Schakowsky, driven by age, district dynamics, and congressional dysfunction, with no new Democratic announcements in the past month but ongoing GOP exits—like Rep. Sam Graves last week—signaling broader pressures. Additional retirements are anticipated ahead of filing deadlines and primaries, as vulnerable incumbents assess midterm risks in battleground districts, though fewer Democrats hold toss-up seats compared to Republicans.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,927Date de fin
Aug 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors 24–27 Democratic House incumbents not seeking re-election in 2026 at 38%, reflecting the current tally of 21 announced per Ballotpedia trackers amid a record early wave of retirement announcements that ties for the highest in a century. This positioning stems from sustained departures among long-serving Democrats like Pelosi, Hoyer, Nadler, and Schakowsky, driven by age, district dynamics, and congressional dysfunction, with no new Democratic announcements in the past month but ongoing GOP exits—like Rep. Sam Graves last week—signaling broader pressures. Additional retirements are anticipated ahead of filing deadlines and primaries, as vulnerable incumbents assess midterm risks in battleground districts, though fewer Democrats hold toss-up seats compared to Republicans.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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