Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature on April 4, 2026, reaching 17°C or higher at the resolving Incheon International Airport station (RKSI), driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) real-time observations and short-range forecasts confirming afternoon peaks of 17-18°C amid mostly cloudy conditions and light southerly winds. Mild spring air masses, following yesterday's nationwide rain that tapered off, enabled sufficient daytime heating consistent with early April climatology—averaging 16-18°C highs—and Yonhap's 18°C forecast. Model consensus from KMA updates showed no cooling signals, with solar insolation overcoming partial cloud cover. Realistic challenges include a rare late-day data revision or unforecasted cold air intrusion, though peak temperatures typically occur mid-afternoon and observations already exceed the threshold. Final Wunderground daily max expected post-midnight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Seoul on April 4?
Highest temperature in Seoul on April 4?
17°C or higher 100.0%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$387,756 Vol.
$387,756 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
100%
17°C or higher 100.0%
15°C <1%
16°C <1%
$387,756 Vol.
$387,756 Vol.
4 avr. 2026
15°C
$39,463 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$119,113 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$130,813 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature on April 4, 2026, reaching 17°C or higher at the resolving Incheon International Airport station (RKSI), driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) real-time observations and short-range forecasts confirming afternoon peaks of 17-18°C amid mostly cloudy conditions and light southerly winds. Mild spring air masses, following yesterday's nationwide rain that tapered off, enabled sufficient daytime heating consistent with early April climatology—averaging 16-18°C highs—and Yonhap's 18°C forecast. Model consensus from KMA updates showed no cooling signals, with solar insolation overcoming partial cloud cover. Realistic challenges include a rare late-day data revision or unforecasted cold air intrusion, though peak temperatures typically occur mid-afternoon and observations already exceed the threshold. Final Wunderground daily max expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$387,756Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Fenêtre de contestation
Final
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature on April 4, 2026, reaching 17°C or higher at the resolving Incheon International Airport station (RKSI), driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) real-time observations and short-range forecasts confirming afternoon peaks of 17-18°C amid mostly cloudy conditions and light southerly winds. Mild spring air masses, following yesterday's nationwide rain that tapered off, enabled sufficient daytime heating consistent with early April climatology—averaging 16-18°C highs—and Yonhap's 18°C forecast. Model consensus from KMA updates showed no cooling signals, with solar insolation overcoming partial cloud cover. Realistic challenges include a rare late-day data revision or unforecasted cold air intrusion, though peak temperatures typically occur mid-afternoon and observations already exceed the threshold. Final Wunderground daily max expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$387,756Date de fin
4 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 29, 2026, 2:43 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Fenêtre de contestation
Final
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Seoul's highest temperature on April 4, 2026, reaching 17°C or higher at the resolving Incheon International Airport station (RKSI), driven by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) real-time observations and short-range forecasts confirming afternoon peaks of 17-18°C amid mostly cloudy conditions and light southerly winds. Mild spring air masses, following yesterday's nationwide rain that tapered off, enabled sufficient daytime heating consistent with early April climatology—averaging 16-18°C highs—and Yonhap's 18°C forecast. Model consensus from KMA updates showed no cooling signals, with solar insolation overcoming partial cloud cover. Realistic challenges include a rare late-day data revision or unforecasted cold air intrusion, though peak temperatures typically occur mid-afternoon and observations already exceed the threshold. Final Wunderground daily max expected post-midnight.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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