Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 15°C in London today, with 94% implied probability, driven by the latest Met Office morning forecast confirming cloudy skies, early drizzle, and a daytime high of 15°C amid approaching Storm Dave. This aligns with model consensus from the UK weather service, reflecting persistent low cloud cover suppressing solar heating and cool northerly airflow, consistent with early April climatology where averages hover around 13–15°C. High confidence stems from high-resolution forecasts within 24 hours of the event, but realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing or a temporary warm front shift, potentially pushing toward 16°C; hourly observations from official stations will refine this as the day unfolds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in London on April 4?
Highest temperature in London on April 4?
15°C 96.4%
16°C 4%
17°C or higher <1%
$214,017 Vol.
$214,017 Vol.
15°C
96%
16°C
4%
17°C or higher
1%
15°C 96.4%
16°C 4%
17°C or higher <1%
$214,017 Vol.
$214,017 Vol.
15°C
96%
16°C
4%
17°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 29, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Source de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 15°C in London today, with 94% implied probability, driven by the latest Met Office morning forecast confirming cloudy skies, early drizzle, and a daytime high of 15°C amid approaching Storm Dave. This aligns with model consensus from the UK weather service, reflecting persistent low cloud cover suppressing solar heating and cool northerly airflow, consistent with early April climatology where averages hover around 13–15°C. High confidence stems from high-resolution forecasts within 24 hours of the event, but realistic challenges include unexpected afternoon clearing or a temporary warm front shift, potentially pushing toward 16°C; hourly observations from official stations will refine this as the day unfolds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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