Traders on Polymarket are pricing a 65% implied probability for Gold futures (GC) to exceed $2,400/oz by June 30, driven primarily by heightened Federal Reserve rate cut expectations following softer-than-expected May CPI data at 3.3% YoY. Spot gold holds near $2,335/oz, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar index (DXY) at 104.5 and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosting safe-haven demand. Key risks include today's FOMC meeting outcomes and June 12 CPI release, where hotter inflation could cap upside via hawkish repricing. Historical precedent shows gold averaging 2.5% monthly gains amid sub-4% core PCE forecasts, underscoring trader consensus for modest end-June appreciation amid $120B in ETF inflows YTD.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourQu'est-ce que Gold (GC) frappera__ d'ici la fin du mois de juin ?
Qu'est-ce que Gold (GC) frappera__ d'ici la fin du mois de juin ?
$2,061,413 Vol.
↑ 10 000 $
3%
↑ 8 500 $
3%
↑ 9 000 $
3%
↑ 8 000 $
4%
↑ 7 000 $
5%
↑ 6 500 $
8%
↑ 6 200 $
10%
↑ 6 000 $
12%
↑ 5 700 $
24%
↑ 5 500 $
32%
↓ 4 200 $
54%
↓ 3 800 $
15%
↓ 3 400 $
7%
$2,061,413 Vol.
↑ 10 000 $
3%
↑ 8 500 $
3%
↑ 9 000 $
3%
↑ 8 000 $
4%
↑ 7 000 $
5%
↑ 6 500 $
8%
↑ 6 200 $
10%
↑ 6 000 $
12%
↑ 5 700 $
24%
↑ 5 500 $
32%
↓ 4 200 $
54%
↓ 3 800 $
15%
↓ 3 400 $
7%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Marché ouvert : Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Traders on Polymarket are pricing a 65% implied probability for Gold futures (GC) to exceed $2,400/oz by June 30, driven primarily by heightened Federal Reserve rate cut expectations following softer-than-expected May CPI data at 3.3% YoY. Spot gold holds near $2,335/oz, supported by a weakening U.S. dollar index (DXY) at 104.5 and persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East boosting safe-haven demand. Key risks include today's FOMC meeting outcomes and June 12 CPI release, where hotter inflation could cap upside via hawkish repricing. Historical precedent shows gold averaging 2.5% monthly gains amid sub-4% core PCE forecasts, underscoring trader consensus for modest end-June appreciation amid $120B in ETF inflows YTD.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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