Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 58.5% implied probability of no Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by sustained disinflation and a softening labor market that favors prolonged monetary easing. The BoC's recent 50-basis-point cut to 3.75% in December 2024 marked its fifth reduction this year, with headline CPI at 1.9% in November—below the 2% target—and core measures easing further amid 6.7% unemployment and sluggish GDP growth. Forward projections from the bank's October Monetary Policy Report anticipate the policy rate stabilizing near neutral levels of 2.25%-2.5% by late 2025, reducing hike likelihood. Key catalysts include January 29 FAD proceedings and monthly CPI releases, where persistent weakness could cement dovish sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourBank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ET
Volume
$2,240Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate is increased at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET has passed.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bank of Canada (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$2,240Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 11, 2026, 5:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 58.5% implied probability of no Bank of Canada rate hike in 2026, driven primarily by sustained disinflation and a softening labor market that favors prolonged monetary easing. The BoC's recent 50-basis-point cut to 3.75% in December 2024 marked its fifth reduction this year, with headline CPI at 1.9% in November—below the 2% target—and core measures easing further amid 6.7% unemployment and sluggish GDP growth. Forward projections from the bank's October Monetary Policy Report anticipate the policy rate stabilizing near neutral levels of 2.25%-2.5% by late 2025, reducing hike likelihood. Key catalysts include January 29 FAD proceedings and monthly CPI releases, where persistent weakness could cement dovish sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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