Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65.5% implied probability for Apple retaining its current second-place market cap ranking of $3.66 trillion by April 30, ahead of Alphabet's $3.31 trillion by a $345 billion margin, while Nvidia's commanding $4.07 trillion lead supports just 6.9% odds of the chip leader slipping to second. Alphabet's 26.5% odds reflect its aggressive AI investments in Google Cloud and Gemini, which propelled a January 2026 overtake of Apple—its first since 2019—before reversing amid broader tech volatility. Recent trading shows Alphabet gaining 2.5% daily versus Apple's 1.6%, narrowing the gap, but traders favor Apple's resilient services revenue and ecosystem lock-in. Pivotal catalysts include Alphabet's Q1 earnings on April 23 and Apple's fiscal Q2 report around April 30, with AI demand trends and macroeconomic risk sentiment poised to sway relative valuations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour2nd largest company end of April?
2nd largest company end of April?
Apple 66%
Alphabet 27%
NVIDIA 6.9%
Microsoft <1%
$701,734 Vol.
$701,734 Vol.

Apple
66%

Alphabet
27%

NVIDIA
7%

Microsoft
1%

Tesla
1%

Saudi Aramco
<1%

Amazon
<1%
Apple 66%
Alphabet 27%
NVIDIA 6.9%
Microsoft <1%
$701,734 Vol.
$701,734 Vol.

Apple
66%

Alphabet
27%

NVIDIA
7%

Microsoft
1%

Tesla
1%

Saudi Aramco
<1%

Amazon
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 20, 2026, 6:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65.5% implied probability for Apple retaining its current second-place market cap ranking of $3.66 trillion by April 30, ahead of Alphabet's $3.31 trillion by a $345 billion margin, while Nvidia's commanding $4.07 trillion lead supports just 6.9% odds of the chip leader slipping to second. Alphabet's 26.5% odds reflect its aggressive AI investments in Google Cloud and Gemini, which propelled a January 2026 overtake of Apple—its first since 2019—before reversing amid broader tech volatility. Recent trading shows Alphabet gaining 2.5% daily versus Apple's 1.6%, narrowing the gap, but traders favor Apple's resilient services revenue and ecosystem lock-in. Pivotal catalysts include Alphabet's Q1 earnings on April 23 and Apple's fiscal Q2 report around April 30, with AI demand trends and macroeconomic risk sentiment poised to sway relative valuations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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