Name: Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?
Start: 2025-04-14T15:56:25.595154Z
End: 2025-04-21T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between April 15, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and April 21, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

MSTR weeklies

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between February 4, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and  February 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 4-10?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between February 11, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and February 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 11-17?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between March 18, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and March 24, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin March 18-24?

On January 27, MicroStrategy announced that, during the period between January 21, 2025 and January 26, 2025, the Company acquired approximately 10,107 bitcoins (see: https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/assets/bltb564490bc5201f31/blt20c45041f41de66b/679770467bb3224979f6d936/form-8-k_01-27-2025.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin by February 3, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase more Bitcoin by Monday?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between March 11, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and March 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 11-17?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between February 25, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and March 3, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.


Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 25-Mar 3?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between February 18, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and February 24, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.


Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb 18-24?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between March 4, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and March 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.


Will Strategy purchase Bitcoin Feb Mar 4-10?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between April 1, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and April 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 1-7?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between April 8, 11:00 AM (inclusive) and April 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 8-14?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between April 22, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and April 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 22-28?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between April 29, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and May 5, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 29-May 5?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between May 6, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and May 12, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between May 13, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and May 19, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 13-19?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between May 20, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and May 26, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 20-26?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between May 27, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and June 2, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 27-June 2?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between June 3, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and June 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 3-9?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between June 24, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 24-30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between July 1, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and July 7, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 1-7?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between June 10, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and June 16, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 10-16?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between July 8 12:00 AM (inclusive) and July 14, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 8-14?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces between June 17, 12:00 AM (inclusive) and June 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive) that they have acquired additional Bitcoin. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin June 17-23?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 15-21?

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 22-28?

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin July 29-August 4?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

archWill MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 25-September 1?

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 26-September 1?

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin September 2-8?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

For reference, MicroStrategy’s reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 23-29?

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin September 9-15?

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 12-18?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 30-October 6?

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 19-25?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase September 16-22?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 7-13?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 14-20?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor.

For reference, MicroStrategy's reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 28-November 3?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase October 21-27?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 4-10?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 11-17?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 18-24?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 2-8?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 25-December 1?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 9-15?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 16-22?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 30-January 5?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 23-29?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 6-12?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 20-26?

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 13-19?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:

- MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin
- MicroStrategy announces holding 750k+ BTC
- MicroStrategy announces bankruptcy
- Strategy (MicroStrategy) (MSTR) added to S&P 500

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/MicroStrategy.pdf

Nothing Ever Happens: MicroStrategy

This market will resolve to “Yes” if MicroStrategy is removed from either the MSCI World Index or the MSCI USA Index at any point by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

If MicroStrategy is transferred between indexes (e.g., from MSCI World to another MSCI index), that will also count as a removal for the purposes of this market.

An official MSCI announcement of removal or transfer will be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution.

The resolution source will be official MSCI communication or a consensus of credible reporting.


Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between November 13, 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timeframe of this market (e.g. if a country announces it made its first purchase of Bitcoin prior to this market's timeframe, but the announcement is made within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "Yes").

A qualifying purchase requires a relevant country take direct custody over the Bitcoin they purchase. Buying into investment vehicles, ETFs, etc., which do not constitute a direct purchase of Bitcoin, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the governments of any purchasing UN member state, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Main Street Sports will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with any other company or private individual(s) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Main Street Sports or the other company involved will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

Partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in Main Street Sports. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Main Street Sports and the acquiring company; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Main Street Sports Sale/Merger by January 31?

On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where the listed company is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between the listed company and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the listed company and/or its leadership; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total USD value of Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1 is greater than $200M. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be the “Daily Buybacks” table on https://hyperscreener.asxn.xyz/revenue. The sum of the “Notional Amount” (USD) values from January 1 through March 31 will be used.

Daily data will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

Over $200M Hyperliquid buybacks in Q1?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that TikTok will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with the listed entity, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by TikTok will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

If TikTok is part of an acquisition or merger involving the specified entity, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether it is the sole buyer or partner.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from TikTok or the listed entity, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be use


Will Microsoft acquire TikTok?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Glencore (GLEN.L) will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Rio Tinto (RIO.L) , or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Glencore or Rio Tinto will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

Partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Glencore or Rio Tinto; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30?

On January 16, Elon Musk posted that buying Ryanair might be a "good idea." You can read more about that here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2012172825444913299

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led or majority owned by him, enters into an agreement to buy Ryanair by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announced agreement between Elon Musk and Ryanair will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

An agreement to merge with a qualifying entity will count toward "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk and Ryanair, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?

Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if cumulative crypto payment card volume is equal to or greater than $1.5B at any point by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be PaymentScan (https://www.paymentscan.xyz/), using the “Cumulative Crypto Card Volumes” chart with “Volume”, “Cumulative”, and “All” selected.

The “Total” value shown when hovering over any daily data point must be equal to or greater than $1.5B to qualify. A daily data point will be considered finalized once the following day’s data point is published.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

Will crypto payment cards volume hit $1.5B by March 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Bitcoin hits an all-time high
- Ethereum hits an all-time high
- Solana hits an all-time high
- US national Bitcoin reserve

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_Crypto.pdf

Nothing Ever Happens: Crypto Edition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any weekly bar in the Kaito “Mindshare over time (L12M)” chart reaches a new all-time high at any point between November 19 and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. If no new all-time high occurs, the market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the creator’s page on Kaito. The weekly bar chart can be viewed by clicking the creator’s name at: https://yaps.kaito.ai/ct-leaderboard

A weekly bar counts as long as its date range includes the target date. A weekly bar is considered finalized once a bar for the following week is published.

Only the weekly values shown in the L12M chart are used for resolution.

If the Kaito page is temporarily unavailable at resolution time, the market will remain open until it returns. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve to “No.”

threadguy mindshare all time high by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.

This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.

This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI Industry Downturn by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holdings officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify. 


Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that American International Group (AIG) Insurance will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Chubb Insurance, or vice versa, by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Chubb or AIG will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Chubb or AIG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Chubb and AIG merger announced by January 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if USD.AI officially launches a governance token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from USD.AI (https://x.com/USDai_Official), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?

Donald Trump’s Social Media and Cryptocurrency company Trump Media and Technology Group and the fusion power company TAE Technologies announced they had agreed to a merger deal on December 18th, signaling a shift of focus for the Trump-owned firm. You can read more about that here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/18/business/trump-media-tae-technologies-fusion-power-deal.html

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the merger between Trump Media and Technology Group and TAE Technologies is completed by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The merger will be considered completed once it has become legally effective and the two companies are now a single entity or they exist under a single entity as one corporate group, as evidenced by official company announcements and/or regulatory filings (e.g. the filing of an 8-K form to the SEC that announces the closure of the deal). Shareholder approval, receipt of regulatory approvals, regulatory filings which do not announce the closure of the deal, or other intermediate steps towards the closing of a deal will not alone be sufficient for a ‘Yes’ resolution.

If the merger agreement is officially terminated or the deal has been abandoned according to official company communications, this market will resolve to “No”.

Resolution will be based on official company communications and regulatory filings from Trump Media and Technology Group, TAE Technologies, or a combined successor entity, supplemented as needed by a consensus of reporting from major reputable news outlets.

Trump Media x TAE Technologies merger closed by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between January 19, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and January 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Venezuela On Steroids" this week? (January 25)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Axiom officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Axiom, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between January 6 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces. Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify. 

Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage. 

Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Extended, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?

Market Context

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?

Rules

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?

Market Context

Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin April 15-21?

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