Will Israel strike Gaza on...?
$1,443,689 Vol.
Jan 31, 2026
January 16
$48,195 Vol.
2%
January 16
$48,195 Vol.
2%
January 17
$33,534 Vol.
1%
January 17
$33,534 Vol.
1%
January 18
$4,220 Vol.
22%
January 18
$4,220 Vol.
22%
January 19
$1,144 Vol.
29%
January 19
$1,144 Vol.
29%
January 20
$309 Vol.
37%
January 20
$309 Vol.
37%
January 21
$281 Vol.
38%
January 21
$281 Vol.
38%
January 22
$190 Vol.
36%
January 22
$190 Vol.
36%
January 23
$1,007 Vol.
45%
January 23
$1,007 Vol.
45%
January 24
$572 Vol.
47%
January 24
$572 Vol.
47%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Gaza soil on the listed date Israel Standard Time (IST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Gaza ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip counts, including buffer zones.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Gaza territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Created At: Dec 31, 2025, 12:40 PM ET
Volume
$1,443,689End Date
Jan 31, 2026Created At
Dec 31, 2025, 12:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Will Israel strike Gaza on...?
$1,443,689 Vol.
January 16
$48,195 Vol.
2%
January 17
$33,534 Vol.
1%
January 18
$4,220 Vol.
22%
January 19
$1,144 Vol.
29%
January 20
$309 Vol.
37%
January 21
$281 Vol.
38%
January 22
$190 Vol.
36%
January 23
$1,007 Vol.
45%
January 24
$572 Vol.
47%
About
Volume
$1,443,689End Date
Jan 31, 2026Created At
Dec 31, 2025, 12:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Beware of external links.
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Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.