Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 58.5% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure after Kristi Noem's March 5 firing as Homeland Security secretary, fueled by a widening Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct—including travel fraud, misuse of agency funds for a personal event, and a hostile workplace—that prompted top aides' resignations on March 3 and a bodyguard's exit on March 20, with a fourth staffer departing March 26. Pete Hegseth at 8.1% and Tulsi Gabbard at 7.6% trail amid Defense Department scrutiny and Gabbard's recent congressional hearings following her counterterrorism aide's March 17 resignation protesting Iran policy. Low odds on "None before 2027" signal expectations of imminent turnover.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedLori Chavez-DeRemer 60%
None before 2027 12.4%
Pete Hegseth 8.1%
Tulsi Gabbard 7.6%
$2,544,986 Vol.
$2,544,986 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
60%
None before 2027
12%
Pete Hegseth
8%
Tulsi Gabbard
8%
Kelly Loeffler
4%
Howard Lutnick
3%
Pam Bondi
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Susie Wiles
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Brooke Rollins
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Chris Wright
1%
John Ratcliffe
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Mike Waltz
<1%
Scott Bessent
<1%
Doug Collins
<1%
Linda McMahon
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 60%
None before 2027 12.4%
Pete Hegseth 8.1%
Tulsi Gabbard 7.6%
$2,544,986 Vol.
$2,544,986 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$75,613 Vol.
60%
None before 2027
$760,425 Vol.
12%
Pete Hegseth
$677,283 Vol.
8%
Tulsi Gabbard
$727,756 Vol.
8%
Kelly Loeffler
$4,631 Vol.
4%
Howard Lutnick
$26,610 Vol.
3%
Pam Bondi
$4,491 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$5,825 Vol.
1%
Doug Burgum
$6,428 Vol.
1%
Susie Wiles
$5,225 Vol.
1%
J.D. Vance
$7,580 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$67,634 Vol.
1%
Brooke Rollins
$7,133 Vol.
1%
Russell T. Vought
$4,509 Vol.
1%
Lee Zeldin
$71,392 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$50,959 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$4,242 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$4,510 Vol.
<1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$3,729 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$5,210 Vol.
<1%
Mike Waltz
$4,968 Vol.
<1%
Scott Bessent
$4,736 Vol.
<1%
Doug Collins
$3,691 Vol.
<1%
Linda McMahon
$10,407 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 58.5% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure after Kristi Noem's March 5 firing as Homeland Security secretary, fueled by a widening Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct—including travel fraud, misuse of agency funds for a personal event, and a hostile workplace—that prompted top aides' resignations on March 3 and a bodyguard's exit on March 20, with a fourth staffer departing March 26. Pete Hegseth at 8.1% and Tulsi Gabbard at 7.6% trail amid Defense Department scrutiny and Gabbard's recent congressional hearings following her counterterrorism aide's March 17 resignation protesting Iran policy. Low odds on "None before 2027" signal expectations of imminent turnover.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Volume
$2,544,986End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 58.5% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure after Kristi Noem's March 5 firing as Homeland Security secretary, fueled by a widening Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct—including travel fraud, misuse of agency funds for a personal event, and a hostile workplace—that prompted top aides' resignations on March 3 and a bodyguard's exit on March 20, with a fourth staffer departing March 26. Pete Hegseth at 8.1% and Tulsi Gabbard at 7.6% trail amid Defense Department scrutiny and Gabbard's recent congressional hearings following her counterterrorism aide's March 17 resignation protesting Iran policy. Low odds on "None before 2027" signal expectations of imminent turnover.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$2,544,986End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer leads trader consensus at 58.5% implied probability as the next Trump Cabinet departure after Kristi Noem's March 5 firing as Homeland Security secretary, fueled by a widening Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct—including travel fraud, misuse of agency funds for a personal event, and a hostile workplace—that prompted top aides' resignations on March 3 and a bodyguard's exit on March 20, with a fourth staffer departing March 26. Pete Hegseth at 8.1% and Tulsi Gabbard at 7.6% trail amid Defense Department scrutiny and Gabbard's recent congressional hearings following her counterterrorism aide's March 17 resignation protesting Iran policy. Low odds on "None before 2027" signal expectations of imminent turnover.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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