Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Lori Chavez-DeRemer (60.5%) as the next Trump Cabinet departure, fueled by reports over the past week of mounting pressure from administration allies questioning her moderate voting record as a former House Republican, including support for bipartisan infrastructure and drug pricing bills that clash with core MAGA priorities. Pete Hegseth (13.7%) trails amid ongoing scrutiny of personal scandals during his Defense Secretary confirmation hearings, while Tulsi Gabbard's (9.2%) DNI nomination faces Republican backlash over her past Democratic affiliations and foreign policy stances. Low odds on "None before 2027" (5.5%) reflect expectations of high turnover in the new administration, with upcoming Senate votes and committee actions poised to test nominees' viability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedLori Chavez-DeRemer 61%
Pete Hegseth 13.5%
Tulsi Gabbard 9.0%
None before 2027 5.5%
$955,998 Vol.
$955,998 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
61%
Pete Hegseth
14%
Tulsi Gabbard
9%
None before 2027
5%
Scott Bessent
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Pam Bondi
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Susie Wiles
1%
Chris Wright
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Mike Waltz
<1%
Doug Collins
<1%
Lee Zeldin
<1%
Doug Burgum
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 61%
Pete Hegseth 13.5%
Tulsi Gabbard 9.0%
None before 2027 5.5%
$955,998 Vol.
$955,998 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$69,087 Vol.
61%
Pete Hegseth
$129,327 Vol.
14%
Tulsi Gabbard
$540,815 Vol.
9%
None before 2027
$38,961 Vol.
5%
Scott Bessent
$4,568 Vol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$6,623 Vol.
2%
Pam Bondi
$3,967 Vol.
1%
J.D. Vance
$7,118 Vol.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$25,908 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$9,792 Vol.
1%
Susie Wiles
$4,682 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$3,772 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$5,472 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$4,255 Vol.
1%
Russell T. Vought
$3,885 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$28,964 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$3,998 Vol.
1%
Jamieson Greer
$4,507 Vol.
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$3,524 Vol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$3,704 Vol.
<1%
Mike Waltz
$4,019 Vol.
<1%
Doug Collins
$3,228 Vol.
<1%
Lee Zeldin
$40,063 Vol.
<1%
Doug Burgum
$5,757 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Lori Chavez-DeRemer (60.5%) as the next Trump Cabinet departure, fueled by reports over the past week of mounting pressure from administration allies questioning her moderate voting record as a former House Republican, including support for bipartisan infrastructure and drug pricing bills that clash with core MAGA priorities. Pete Hegseth (13.7%) trails amid ongoing scrutiny of personal scandals during his Defense Secretary confirmation hearings, while Tulsi Gabbard's (9.2%) DNI nomination faces Republican backlash over her past Democratic affiliations and foreign policy stances. Low odds on "None before 2027" (5.5%) reflect expectations of high turnover in the new administration, with upcoming Senate votes and committee actions poised to test nominees' viability.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Volume
$955,998End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Lori Chavez-DeRemer (60.5%) as the next Trump Cabinet departure, fueled by reports over the past week of mounting pressure from administration allies questioning her moderate voting record as a former House Republican, including support for bipartisan infrastructure and drug pricing bills that clash with core MAGA priorities. Pete Hegseth (13.7%) trails amid ongoing scrutiny of personal scandals during his Defense Secretary confirmation hearings, while Tulsi Gabbard's (9.2%) DNI nomination faces Republican backlash over her past Democratic affiliations and foreign policy stances. Low odds on "None before 2027" (5.5%) reflect expectations of high turnover in the new administration, with upcoming Senate votes and committee actions poised to test nominees' viability.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$955,998End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Lori Chavez-DeRemer (60.5%) as the next Trump Cabinet departure, fueled by reports over the past week of mounting pressure from administration allies questioning her moderate voting record as a former House Republican, including support for bipartisan infrastructure and drug pricing bills that clash with core MAGA priorities. Pete Hegseth (13.7%) trails amid ongoing scrutiny of personal scandals during his Defense Secretary confirmation hearings, while Tulsi Gabbard's (9.2%) DNI nomination faces Republican backlash over her past Democratic affiliations and foreign policy stances. Low odds on "None before 2027" (5.5%) reflect expectations of high turnover in the new administration, with upcoming Senate votes and committee actions poised to test nominees' viability.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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