Trader consensus heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 57% to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by escalating scandals including a Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, the March 3 forced resignations of her top aides amid White House ultimatums over bullying and cover-up claims, and a March 20 bodyguard exit tied to affair allegations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.6% amid his prior Pentagon staff turnover patterns, while Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard sits at 10.8% following a top aide's March 17 resignation protesting Iran policy. These recent internal upheavals contrast with low 6.3% odds for no exits before 2027, underscoring cabinet instability risks ahead of potential further investigations or Senate scrutiny.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedLori Chavez-DeRemer 57%
Pete Hegseth 11.5%
Tulsi Gabbard 10.8%
None before 2027 6.8%
$1,858,650 Vol.
$1,858,650 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
57%
Pete Hegseth
12%
Tulsi Gabbard
11%
None before 2027
7%
Mike Waltz
2%
Scott Bessent
2%
Brooke Rollins
1%
Lee Zeldin
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Pam Bondi
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Susie Wiles
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Chris Wright
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Kelly Loeffler
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Doug Collins
<1%
Doug Burgum
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 57%
Pete Hegseth 11.5%
Tulsi Gabbard 10.8%
None before 2027 6.8%
$1,858,650 Vol.
$1,858,650 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$73,286 Vol.
57%
Pete Hegseth
$468,468 Vol.
12%
Tulsi Gabbard
$693,910 Vol.
11%
None before 2027
$332,960 Vol.
7%
Mike Waltz
$4,298 Vol.
2%
Scott Bessent
$4,568 Vol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$6,671 Vol.
1%
Lee Zeldin
$70,392 Vol.
1%
J.D. Vance
$7,171 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$67,124 Vol.
1%
Pam Bondi
$4,020 Vol.
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$3,560 Vol.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$26,071 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$9,812 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$5,472 Vol.
1%
Susie Wiles
$4,750 Vol.
1%
Russell T. Vought
$3,976 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$3,998 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$3,869 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$50,374 Vol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$3,705 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$4,507 Vol.
<1%
Doug Collins
$3,258 Vol.
<1%
Doug Burgum
$5,787 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 57% to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by escalating scandals including a Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, the March 3 forced resignations of her top aides amid White House ultimatums over bullying and cover-up claims, and a March 20 bodyguard exit tied to affair allegations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.6% amid his prior Pentagon staff turnover patterns, while Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard sits at 10.8% following a top aide's March 17 resignation protesting Iran policy. These recent internal upheavals contrast with low 6.3% odds for no exits before 2027, underscoring cabinet instability risks ahead of potential further investigations or Senate scrutiny.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Volume
$1,858,650End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 57% to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by escalating scandals including a Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, the March 3 forced resignations of her top aides amid White House ultimatums over bullying and cover-up claims, and a March 20 bodyguard exit tied to affair allegations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.6% amid his prior Pentagon staff turnover patterns, while Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard sits at 10.8% following a top aide's March 17 resignation protesting Iran policy. These recent internal upheavals contrast with low 6.3% odds for no exits before 2027, underscoring cabinet instability risks ahead of potential further investigations or Senate scrutiny.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,858,650End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 57% to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by escalating scandals including a Department of Labor inspector general probe into alleged misconduct, the March 3 forced resignations of her top aides amid White House ultimatums over bullying and cover-up claims, and a March 20 bodyguard exit tied to affair allegations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.6% amid his prior Pentagon staff turnover patterns, while Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard sits at 10.8% following a top aide's March 17 resignation protesting Iran policy. These recent internal upheavals contrast with low 6.3% odds for no exits before 2027, underscoring cabinet instability risks ahead of potential further investigations or Senate scrutiny.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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