Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer as the next Trump Cabinet departure at 57%, driven by a cascade of early March scandals including the resignation of her top aides amid a White House ultimatum, a security staffer's exit over alleged affair claims, and an expanding internal probe into department misconduct and fund misuse. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.2% amid criticism over handling of recent Iran escalations and ongoing confirmation-era alcohol allegations resurfacing in war briefings, while DNI Tulsi Gabbard sits at 10.7% following tense March congressional testimony on Iran threats and a top counterterrorism official's resignation. These probabilities reflect skin-in-the-game assessments of mounting pressures, with "None before 2027" at just 6.6% signaling expectations of further turnover akin to recent DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's ouster.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedLori Chavez-DeRemer 57%
Pete Hegseth 11.1%
Tulsi Gabbard 10.7%
None before 2027 6.5%
$1,992,134 Vol.
$1,992,134 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
57%
Pete Hegseth
11%
Tulsi Gabbard
11%
None before 2027
7%
Howard Lutnick
3%
Mike Waltz
3%
Scott Bessent
2%
Russell T. Vought
2%
Doug Collins
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Lee Zeldin
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Doug Burgum
1%
Scott Turner
1%
Pam Bondi
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
Susie Wiles
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Jamieson Greer
1%
Kelly Loeffler
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Chris Wright
1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 57%
Pete Hegseth 11.1%
Tulsi Gabbard 10.7%
None before 2027 6.5%
$1,992,134 Vol.
$1,992,134 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$73,296 Vol.
57%
Pete Hegseth
$468,713 Vol.
11%
Tulsi Gabbard
$693,915 Vol.
11%
None before 2027
$465,147 Vol.
7%
Howard Lutnick
$26,207 Vol.
3%
Mike Waltz
$4,379 Vol.
3%
Scott Bessent
$4,573 Vol.
2%
Russell T. Vought
$4,146 Vol.
2%
Doug Collins
$3,527 Vol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$6,770 Vol.
2%
Lee Zeldin
$70,520 Vol.
1%
J.D. Vance
$7,176 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$67,164 Vol.
1%
Doug Burgum
$6,065 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$5,646 Vol.
1%
Pam Bondi
$4,128 Vol.
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$3,565 Vol.
1%
Susie Wiles
$4,861 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$4,146 Vol.
1%
Jamieson Greer
$4,846 Vol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$3,960 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$9,817 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$50,379 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$4,028 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer as the next Trump Cabinet departure at 57%, driven by a cascade of early March scandals including the resignation of her top aides amid a White House ultimatum, a security staffer's exit over alleged affair claims, and an expanding internal probe into department misconduct and fund misuse. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.2% amid criticism over handling of recent Iran escalations and ongoing confirmation-era alcohol allegations resurfacing in war briefings, while DNI Tulsi Gabbard sits at 10.7% following tense March congressional testimony on Iran threats and a top counterterrorism official's resignation. These probabilities reflect skin-in-the-game assessments of mounting pressures, with "None before 2027" at just 6.6% signaling expectations of further turnover akin to recent DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's ouster.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Volume
$1,992,134End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer as the next Trump Cabinet departure at 57%, driven by a cascade of early March scandals including the resignation of her top aides amid a White House ultimatum, a security staffer's exit over alleged affair claims, and an expanding internal probe into department misconduct and fund misuse. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.2% amid criticism over handling of recent Iran escalations and ongoing confirmation-era alcohol allegations resurfacing in war briefings, while DNI Tulsi Gabbard sits at 10.7% following tense March congressional testimony on Iran threats and a top counterterrorism official's resignation. These probabilities reflect skin-in-the-game assessments of mounting pressures, with "None before 2027" at just 6.6% signaling expectations of further turnover akin to recent DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's ouster.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,992,134End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer as the next Trump Cabinet departure at 57%, driven by a cascade of early March scandals including the resignation of her top aides amid a White House ultimatum, a security staffer's exit over alleged affair claims, and an expanding internal probe into department misconduct and fund misuse. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth trails at 11.2% amid criticism over handling of recent Iran escalations and ongoing confirmation-era alcohol allegations resurfacing in war briefings, while DNI Tulsi Gabbard sits at 10.7% following tense March congressional testimony on Iran threats and a top counterterrorism official's resignation. These probabilities reflect skin-in-the-game assessments of mounting pressures, with "None before 2027" at just 6.6% signaling expectations of further turnover akin to recent DHS Secretary Kristi Noem's ouster.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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