Trader consensus favors Labor Secretary nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% implied probability to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by mounting bipartisan opposition over her congressional voting record supporting minimum wage increases and union-backed bills, which has alienated both conservative Republicans and labor interests ahead of Senate confirmation hearings. Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth trails at 12.5% amid ongoing scrutiny of past sexual misconduct allegations and criticism from veterans' groups, while DNI nominee Tulsi Gabbard sits at 9.5% facing bipartisan concerns about her foreign policy statements. No withdrawals have occurred since nominations, but upcoming committee votes and floor confirmations could catalyze shifts, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in this fluid transition period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedLori Chavez-DeRemer 59%
Tulsi Gabbard 9.5%
Pete Hegseth 7.4%
None before 2027 6.2%
$1,142,129 Vol.
$1,142,129 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
59%
Tulsi Gabbard
10%
Pete Hegseth
7%
None before 2027
6%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Scott Bessent
2%
J.D. Vance
2%
Pam Bondi
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Susie Wiles
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Scott Turner
1%
John Ratcliffe
1%
Chris Wright
1%
Marco Rubio
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Sean Duffy
1%
Kelly Loeffler
1%
Mike Waltz
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
Doug Collins
<1%
Lee Zeldin
<1%
Doug Burgum
<1%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 59%
Tulsi Gabbard 9.5%
Pete Hegseth 7.4%
None before 2027 6.2%
$1,142,129 Vol.
$1,142,129 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Lori Chavez-DeRemer
$69,633 Vol.
59%
Tulsi Gabbard
$658,315 Vol.
10%
Pete Hegseth
$192,338 Vol.
7%
None before 2027
$47,214 Vol.
6%
Brooke Rollins
$6,623 Vol.
2%
Scott Bessent
$4,568 Vol.
2%
J.D. Vance
$7,171 Vol.
2%
Pam Bondi
$3,967 Vol.
1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$3,524 Vol.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$25,908 Vol.
1%
Susie Wiles
$4,682 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$9,792 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$5,472 Vol.
1%
John Ratcliffe
$3,998 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$3,772 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$28,964 Vol.
1%
Russell T. Vought
$3,885 Vol.
1%
Sean Duffy
$4,255 Vol.
1%
Kelly Loeffler
$3,705 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$4,019 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$4,507 Vol.
<1%
Doug Collins
$3,228 Vol.
<1%
Lee Zeldin
$40,063 Vol.
<1%
Doug Burgum
$5,757 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus favors Labor Secretary nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% implied probability to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by mounting bipartisan opposition over her congressional voting record supporting minimum wage increases and union-backed bills, which has alienated both conservative Republicans and labor interests ahead of Senate confirmation hearings. Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth trails at 12.5% amid ongoing scrutiny of past sexual misconduct allegations and criticism from veterans' groups, while DNI nominee Tulsi Gabbard sits at 9.5% facing bipartisan concerns about her foreign policy statements. No withdrawals have occurred since nominations, but upcoming committee votes and floor confirmations could catalyze shifts, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in this fluid transition period.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ET
Volume
$1,142,129End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.Trader consensus favors Labor Secretary nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% implied probability to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by mounting bipartisan opposition over her congressional voting record supporting minimum wage increases and union-backed bills, which has alienated both conservative Republicans and labor interests ahead of Senate confirmation hearings. Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth trails at 12.5% amid ongoing scrutiny of past sexual misconduct allegations and criticism from veterans' groups, while DNI nominee Tulsi Gabbard sits at 9.5% facing bipartisan concerns about her foreign policy statements. No withdrawals have occurred since nominations, but upcoming committee votes and floor confirmations could catalyze shifts, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in this fluid transition period.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$1,142,129End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Mar 6, 2026, 9:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors Labor Secretary nominee Lori Chavez-DeRemer at 58.5% implied probability to be the next Trump Cabinet departure, driven by mounting bipartisan opposition over her congressional voting record supporting minimum wage increases and union-backed bills, which has alienated both conservative Republicans and labor interests ahead of Senate confirmation hearings. Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth trails at 12.5% amid ongoing scrutiny of past sexual misconduct allegations and criticism from veterans' groups, while DNI nominee Tulsi Gabbard sits at 9.5% facing bipartisan concerns about her foreign policy statements. No withdrawals have occurred since nominations, but upcoming committee votes and floor confirmations could catalyze shifts, reflecting the wisdom of crowds in this fluid transition period.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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