Tina Kotek in Oregon and Troy Jackson in Maine lead trader consensus as most likely to underperform Kamala Harris’s 2024 presidential vote share in their states, with implied probabilities above 80 percent on related platforms. The market resolves on certified November 3, 2026 general election results for listed Senate and gubernatorial candidates versus Harris’s state-level baselines. Recent polling shows tighter contests in Maine and Oregon than Harris achieved, while broader Democratic momentum in the midterms has not uniformly lifted every nominee above her 2024 floor. Kathy Hochul in New York and several others trade near even odds, reflecting state-specific turnout patterns, candidate profiles, and the remaining three weeks of campaigning. Harris’s own final-week stops in battleground states add visibility but have not shifted these relative-performance contracts.