Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability that neither Jon Ossoff nor Raphael Warnock will leave the Senate in 2026, driven primarily by Ossoff’s incumbency advantage ahead of his Class 2 seat contest and Warnock’s term extending into 2029. Georgia’s competitive electoral environment has shown no decisive polling shifts or high-profile Republican challengers gaining traction in recent weeks, while both senators maintain solid fundraising and no retirement signals have emerged. Historical Senate re-election rates and the absence of scandals or health events further anchor the consensus. Scenarios that could still move the outcome include late-breaking controversies, a sharp national midterm wave, or unexpected candidate withdrawals within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No."
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability that neither Jon Ossoff nor Raphael Warnock will leave the Senate in 2026, driven primarily by Ossoff’s incumbency advantage ahead of his Class 2 seat contest and Warnock’s term extending into 2029. Georgia’s competitive electoral environment has shown no decisive polling shifts or high-profile Republican challengers gaining traction in recent weeks, while both senators maintain solid fundraising and no retirement signals have emerged. Historical Senate re-election rates and the absence of scandals or health events further anchor the consensus. Scenarios that could still move the outcome include late-breaking controversies, a sharp national midterm wave, or unexpected candidate withdrawals within the resolution window.
This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No."
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 7:38 PM ET
Volume
$1,074End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No."
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability that neither Jon Ossoff nor Raphael Warnock will leave the Senate in 2026, driven primarily by Ossoff’s incumbency advantage ahead of his Class 2 seat contest and Warnock’s term extending into 2029. Georgia’s competitive electoral environment has shown no decisive polling shifts or high-profile Republican challengers gaining traction in recent weeks, while both senators maintain solid fundraising and no retirement signals have emerged. Historical Senate re-election rates and the absence of scandals or health events further anchor the consensus. Scenarios that could still move the outcome include late-breaking controversies, a sharp national midterm wave, or unexpected candidate withdrawals within the resolution window.
This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No."
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.
Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.
Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.
Volume
$1,074End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 7:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability that neither Jon Ossoff nor Raphael Warnock will leave the Senate in 2026, driven primarily by Ossoff’s incumbency advantage ahead of his Class 2 seat contest and Warnock’s term extending into 2029. Georgia’s competitive electoral environment has shown no decisive polling shifts or high-profile Republican challengers gaining traction in recent weeks, while both senators maintain solid fundraising and no retirement signals have emerged. Historical Senate re-election rates and the absence of scandals or health events further anchor the consensus. Scenarios that could still move the outcome include late-breaking controversies, a sharp national midterm wave, or unexpected candidate withdrawals within the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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