Name: What will Trump say during Arizona speech?
Start: 2024-08-23T16:43:10.337829Z
End: 2024-08-23T12:00:00Z

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This is a market group over what Donald Trump will say during his speech scheduled for August 23 in Glendale, Arizona.

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says "Comrade Kamala" 3 or more times during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Comrade Kamala 3+ times

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says "tampon" during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "tampon" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to the feminine hygiene product.

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Tampon

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says "World War 3" during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

World War 3

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump says "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "MAGA" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to making America great again (e.g. "MAGA-themed" counts).

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

MAGA

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says "border czar" during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Border Czar

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says "alien" 3 or more times during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "alien" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to belonging to a foreign country or nation.

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Alien 3+ times

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says "border" 5 or more times during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "border" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to belonging to a political boundary between nations.

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Border 5+ times

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says "fake news" during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Fake News

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says "drill baby drill" during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the phrase regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the phrase will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Drill Baby Drill

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says "debate" during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "debate" is part of the compound word and references a public discussion between competing political candidates.

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Debate

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says "Orbán" during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "Orbán" is part of the compound word and references the meaning which refers to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Orbán

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says "Space Force" during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the term regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the term will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Space Force

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says "marxist" during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "marxist" is part of the compound word and references something relating to or denoting the political and economic theories of Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels.

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Marxist

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says "insane asylum" during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Insane Asylum

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says "beach" during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "beach" is part of the compound word and references a strip of land covered with sand, pebbles, or small stones at the edge of a body of water.

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Beach

Donald Trump is scheduled to speak in Glendale, Arizona on August 23, 2024.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says "nasty" during his appearance at this event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Any usage of the word regardless of context will count toward the resolution of this market.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market, however other forms will NOT count.

Compound words will count as long as "nasty" is part of the compound word and references something unpleasant or harmful.

If Trump does not give a speech at this event, or if the event is otherwise cancelled or delayed beyond August 23, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the video of the speech.

Nasty

What will Trump say during Arizona speech?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Arizona, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Arizona Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Arizona Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Benjamin Netanyahu personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

This includes calling Netanyahu weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, or using other derogatory language. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

Any public statement made by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Nicholas J. Fuentes personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling Nicholas J. Fuentes weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “Nick isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to Nicholas J. Fuentes’s professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “Nick isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if Nicholas J. Fuentes is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

Will Trump disparage Nick Fuentes by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, any candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Jason Duey be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. 

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. 

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly endorses, or announces that he will vote for, JD Vance for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If Donald Trump announces that he will vote for another candidate or endorses another candidate for the 2028 United States presidential election or the Republican primary for that election, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse JD Vance for president before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump golfs on over 25% of days between January 20 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to https://trumpgolftrack.com as of January 2, 2026, 12:00 PM. However, definitive photo or video evidence confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to supplement the tally if the trumpgolftrack.com tally is incomplete. 

 


Will Trump spend >25% of 2025 presidency golfing?

If Donald J. Trump visits Israel by December 31, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Israel. Whether or not Trump enters Israeli airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Trump, information released by his verified social media accounts, and official information from Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit Israel again by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. President Donald Trump visits the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip. Whether or not Trump enters the Gaza Strip's airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution.

A visit to any area within the terrestrial territory of the Gaza Strip, including visits to buffer zones, counts.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, or official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit Gaza by Dec 31?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits North Korea between August 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Benjamin Netanyahu between November 18 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both the listed individual and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Netanyahu again before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 22, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 22 - 28)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei speak directly to one another between June 26, 7:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any conversation that occurs directly between Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei will qualify, regardless of whether it is over the phone, videocall, or in person. The conversation must be voice-based, not text-based.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the governments of Iran and the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump publicly claims that any of the moon landings were faked by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The claim must come directly from Trump via a verified social media account, official public statement, or during a recorded interview, speech, or rally. Indirect remarks, jokes, or quotes taken out of context will not count.

The primary resolution source for this market will be statements made by Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used to confirm the legitimacy of such statements.

Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025?

On September 1, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency this fall to address high housing costs.(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bessent-says-trump-administration-will-tackle-high-housing-costs-with-new-2025-09-01/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) primarily addressing housing by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Will Trump announce a national housing emergency in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes any tariffs on imports from Mexico by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions that lower, pause, delay, or remove any tariffs on Mexican imports will qualify, including changes to the reciprocal tariff, or any other existing or new tariffs specifically targeting Mexican goods.

Only the removal of tariffs specifically targeting Mexico will qualify. For example, the removal of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S., or a tariff on specific Mexican provinces or entities, will not count toward this market’s resolution.

Item-specific tariff exemptions, such as those outlined in the U.S. Customs and Border Protection notice dated April 11, 2025, which excluded 25 HTSUS codes covering electronics, will not qualify.

Any action officially enacted within the market’s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal action or makes an official announcement directing the deployment of National Guard troops to the listed city by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

Qualifying actions include but are not limited to:
- A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city.
- An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city.
- A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized).
- An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city.

Non-qualifying actions include:
- Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement 
- Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city.
- Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location.
- A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump send the national guard to Seattle by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Volodymyr Zelenskyy meets with Donald Trump by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Trump are present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the location of the next meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin between September 30 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "No meeting by June 30" if no qualifying meeting occurs during this market's timeframe.

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Putin and Trump are all present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

For this market, Gulf states are defined as the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates).

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Knucklehead" or "Numbskull" or "Numskull" in December?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is interviewed by Tucker Carlson between November 17, 2025 and February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An interview is defined as a scheduled, recorded conversation where Donald Trump answers questions posed by Tucker Carlson. Press conferences or media briefings held by the White House with Carlson in attendance will not count.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a credible consensus of reporting that Donald Trump has recorded an interview with Tucker Carlson before February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, even if that interview is not yet released.

The resolution source for this market will be publicly available video footage of the interview; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tucker Carlson interview Trump by February 28?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin meet in Hungary at any time by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A meeting is defined as any encounter where Trump and Putin are both present and interact with each other in person.

An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of $TRUMP (https://solscan.io/token/6p6xgHyF7AeE6TZkSmFsko444wqoP15icUSqi2jfGiPN), either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Media buy $TRUMP in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) buys any amount of Ethereum, either directly or through a subsidiary, between July 21, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be announcements through official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What will Trump say during Arizona speech?

Comrade Kamala 3+ times
$35,175 Vol.
Yes

Tampon
$25,640 Vol.
Yes

World War 3
$5,978 Vol.
No

MAGA
$15,279 Vol.
Yes

Nasty
$3,087 Vol.
Yes

Border Czar
$10,128 Vol.
Yes

Alien 3+ times
$19,198 Vol.
Yes

Border 5+ times
$12,995 Vol.
Yes

Fake News
$11,220 Vol.
Yes

Drill Baby Drill
$10,237 Vol.
No

Debate
$1,578 Vol.
Yes

Orbán
$1,284 Vol.
Yes

Space Force
$1,424 Vol.
No

Marxist
$6,438 Vol.
Yes

Insane Asylum
$9,056 Vol.
No

Beach
$25,606 Vol.
No

Market Context

What will Trump say during Arizona speech?

Rules

What will Trump say during Arizona speech?

Market Context

What will Trump say during Arizona speech?

About

Related

What will Trump say during Arizona speech?

Comrade Kamala 3+ times$35,175 Vol.Yescircle check

Tampon$25,640 Vol.Yescircle check

World War 3$5,978 Vol.Nocircle xmark

MAGA$15,279 Vol.Yescircle check

Nasty$3,087 Vol.Yescircle check

Border Czar$10,128 Vol.Yescircle check

Alien 3+ times$19,198 Vol.Yescircle check

Border 5+ times$12,995 Vol.Yescircle check

Fake News$11,220 Vol.Yescircle check

Drill Baby Drill$10,237 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Debate$1,578 Vol.Yescircle check

Orbán$1,284 Vol.Yescircle check

Space Force$1,424 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Marxist$6,438 Vol.Yescircle check

Insane Asylum$9,056 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Beach$25,606 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

What will Trump say during Arizona speech?

Rules

What will Trump say during Arizona speech?

Market Context

What will Trump say during Arizona speech?

About

Related

Comrade Kamala 3+ times
$35,175 Vol.
Yes

Tampon
$25,640 Vol.
Yes

World War 3
$5,978 Vol.
No

MAGA
$15,279 Vol.
Yes

Nasty
$3,087 Vol.
Yes

Border Czar
$10,128 Vol.
Yes

Alien 3+ times
$19,198 Vol.
Yes

Border 5+ times
$12,995 Vol.
Yes

Fake News
$11,220 Vol.
Yes

Drill Baby Drill
$10,237 Vol.
No

Debate
$1,578 Vol.
Yes

Orbán
$1,284 Vol.
Yes

Space Force
$1,424 Vol.
No

Marxist
$6,438 Vol.
Yes

Insane Asylum
$9,056 Vol.
No

Beach
$25,606 Vol.
No